CAA MBB Tournament 2024-25 - Early Outlook

[Jojogunne]

If the season ended today, we would play Stony Brook in the Friday play-in round.

If we were to win that game, we would face #6 Monmouth on Saturday.

CAA MBB Standings:

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?standings=220

Championship Bracket:

https://caasports.com/tournaments/?id=242

Does anyone see us winning five games in five days?

[Wags]

If the season ended today, we would play Stony Brook in the Friday play-in round.

If we were to win that game, we would face #6 Monmouth on Saturday.

CAA MBB Standings:

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?standings=220

You would think of all sites, the conference site would have the correct standings, but it doesn't. Based on head-to-head tiebreakers, William & Mary should be ahead of Charleston for 3rd & 4th and Northeastern should be ahead of Drexel for 9th & 10th.

Does anyone see us winning five games in five days?

Considering they beat UNCW, were up 18 at Towson, and were up 18 on Campbell, they're capable of beating anyone in the tournament.

However, considering they have yet to win consecutive CAA games in the regular season (their last chance to do so is at Stony Brook), it'll be hard enough for them two win two days in a row let alone five.

[Mark19th]

The sooner this season is over the better.


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[HUSID74]

Don't know if I can stomach a fourth straight loss to SBU.

[Wags]

Don't know if I can stomach a fourth straight loss to SBU.

Especially since before losing the last three to Stony Brook, it was a series that Hofstra had been dominating, 28-6.

[RainDelay]

If Stony beats Elon and We beat A&T we play A&T again. Any other result we play Stony .

[EvanJ]

If we play NC A&T in the First Round, the loser will play their last two games against the same team after not playing that team before that. That must be rare, and it is only possible in conferences that are not double round-robin.

This is the first time we needed to win five games to win a tournament. Prior to the CAA's expansion to 13 and then 14 teams, we were never in a five round conference tournament.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... akers2.pdf has tiebreakers. 1 seed Towson and 2 seed UNCW are the only teams that clinched their seed, and there are so many possibilities among Elon, Drexel, Northeastern, and Hampton, who are all 8-9. If we win in the First Round, we will play one of those teams in the Second Round, and we did the best against Elon. If we win, and we want to beat Elon, we will know who to root for when Hampton at 4:00 P.M. and Elon at 6:00 P.M. play after us. Drexel and Northeastern play at the same time as us. If we lose, our seed will be determined by the last game, which is Delaware at UNCW, in which case we will find out who the 11-14 winner will play in the Second Round and who the 12-13 winner will play in the Second Round before we find out if we are the 11 or 12.

[Hofstra]

Save the gas on this one, dont even take the bus out the garage. This season smells worse than the fumes that Fast Eddie drives

[Wags]

That matchups are set:

(1) Towson
(8) Drexel / (9) Elon

(4) William & Mary
(5) Campbell / (12) Delaware / (13) Stony Brook

(2) UNCW
(7) Northeastern / (10) Hampton

(3) Charleston
(6) Monmouth / (11) Hofstra / (14) NC A&T

[Wags]

Since they haven't done it since before CAA play, way back on Dec. 9, I'll believe that they can win consecutive CAA games when I see it.

BUT, these tournaments are often all about momentum if a low seed seed would make a deep run. And they do have things lined up as well as an 11 seed can: They avoided the team (Stony Brook) that's 2-0 against them and play the severely depleted worst team in the CAA that they just blew out today. The would then play a team that they led by 16 (before they lost close), and if they were to get those two, then suddenly, they're in the quarters against Charleston. And although that would be a pseudo road game and they may be tired against a fresh Charleston team with the crowd behind them, the would have the momentum of two wins in D.C. while Charleston would be playing its first game there. That could be a factor in that case. Not saying the WILL get to the semis, but there's a case to be made for a run IF they can actually be consistent for once this year.

[dutchPride86]

Since they haven't done it since before CAA play, way back on Dec. 9, I'll believe that they can win consecutive CAA games when I see it.

BUT, these tournaments are often all about momentum if a low seed seed would make a deep run. And they do have things lined up as well as an 11 seed can: They avoided the team (Stony Brook) that's 2-0 against them and play the severely depleted worst team in the CAA that they just blew out today. The would then play a team that they led by 16 (before they lost close), and if they were to get those two, then suddenly, they're in the quarters against Charleston. And although that would be a pseudo road game and they may be tired against a fresh Charleston team with the crowd behind them, the would have the momentum of two wins in D.C. while Charleston would be playing its first game there. That could be a factor in that case. Not saying the WILL get to the semis, but there's a case to be made for a run IF they can actually be consistent for once this year.

Agree draw could have been a lot worse to start. Get to Charleston on Sunday, give them a competitive game, and it'll take a little bit of the sting off the mess they've made of this season imo. Charleston is still the one team I saw in conference this year where I felt they far outclassed us though.

I know Hofstra probably still more likely to lose Friday than go on any kind of run, but Monmouth is a game they can win (not easily but doable) if they don't *!@* the bed against A&T on Friday

[Wags]

If you're feeling that this was an underachieving season and Hofstra should have been better than it was...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... stra-pride

Hofstra as favorites vs. D-I this year: 5-11 (3-8 CAA) - includes 1-6 (1-5 CAA) as favorites of at least 5.5 pts
Hofstra as underdogs vs. D-I this year: 7-6 (3-4 CAA)

[cactus]

The draw is great, both those first two games are very winnable, then hope Charleston comes out tight and go from there

[EvanJ]

If you're feeling that this was an underachieving season and Hofstra should have been better than it was...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... stra-pride

Hofstra as favorites vs. D-I this year: 5-11 (3-8 CAA) - includes 1-6 (1-5 CAA) as favorites of at least 5.5 pts
Hofstra as underdogs vs. D-I this year: 7-6 (3-4 CAA)

Expressed differently, the favorite went 11-18 (.379) when we played.

The CAA's all-kenpom.com team has:

1. Ante Brzovic of Charleston
2. Rashad King of Northeastern
3. Aranguren
4. Colby Duggan of Campbell
5. Donovan Newby of UNCW

KenPom expects us to win 69-62 with a 74 percent chance of winning. KenPom expects Delaware to defeat Stony Brook 81-76 with a 67 percent chance of winning. Games between now and Friday could affect strength of schedule to make the expectations be slightly different right before the games.

[Wags]

If you're feeling that this was an underachieving season and Hofstra should have been better than it was...

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... stra-pride

Hofstra as favorites vs. D-I this year: 5-11 (3-8 CAA) - includes 1-6 (1-5 CAA) as favorites of at least 5.5 pts
Hofstra as underdogs vs. D-I this year: 7-6 (3-4 CAA)

Expressed differently, the favorite went 11-18 (.379) when we played.

Yes, but it was more to show - at least according to what Vegas thought - that they should've won a lot more than they did, especially when they had a winning record overall (as well as a better record vs. the CAA) as underdogs.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Looking at the season as a whole, we really struggled to overcome our terrible perimeter shooting, and the lack of experience on our roster started to show in conference play as other teams made adjustments that we were seemingly unable to make.

I’ve been generally impressed with our defensive effort, we gave up a lot of size at times and still hung in there, but our offense never evolved. The second half collapses in conference play have become a blur, but Aranguren stuck in the paint with nowhere to go, possession after possession will be burned in my mind. That was a product of lack of options, inexperience, and questionable coaching to not make enough in-game adjustments late, IMO. We have to work harder to find the best shot, it can’t only be Cruz and Jean late.

I hope we can make it to Sunday, really no reason we can’t. But I just want to see a win. Our team has to play their game and just keep moving the ball offensively. We can hang with anybody in the league, 5 games is obviously a ridiculous task, but maybe we’ll play like we have nothing to lose for a change. I don’t want to see this initially promising season go out with a whimper.

[Wags]

We can hang with anybody in the league

This is very true.

maybe we’ll play like we have nothing to lose for a change.

And this is certainly possible, especially when underdogs and low seeds have a fresh starts in a tournament setting.

I hope we can make it to Sunday, really no reason we can’t.

But there are plenty of reasons they can't do this, namely that they routinely go through multiple stretches of missing several shots in a row, routinely close first halves poorly, routinely collapse in second halves, often can't score down the stretches of close games, and their blown 16-point lead against Monmouth in particular, as well as their inability to keep Durr off the foul line in that game are all reasons why they wouldn't make it Sunday. But we'll see if the first two above will somehow override all the reasons against this third one.

[EvanJ]

Looking at the season as a whole, we really struggled to overcome our terrible perimeter shooting, and the lack of experience on our roster started to show in conference play as other teams made adjustments that we were seemingly unable to make.

We shoot threes .334, which is 11th in the CAA, but only slightly below the CAA's average. If we shot the same amount of attempts with the percentage that the other 13 teams combined for, we would have made 4 more threes in 31 games, for 0.39 more points per game. We don't shoot threes "terrible." Furthermore, who knows if Gadsden and Sanders will be available, and if you take them out, we shoot threes .354, which would be second in the CAA.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2025/3/4/men ... ggies.aspx is our preview titled "Pride Opens CAA Championship With Rematch Against Aggies."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game32.pdf is our Game Notes.

If you think winning five games in five days is hard, https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... racket.pdf has the Sun Belt bracket, which also has 14 teams. They have four teams enter in the First Round, and two teams enter in each of the next five rounds. Seeds 11 through 14 need to win seven consecutive days to win, with the middle five being against teams in their first tournament game. If we got the 11 seed in the Sun Belt, winning would require defeating the 14, 10, 7, 6, 3, 2, and the winner of the other half that the 1 seed would only need to win one game to win.

[Wags]

Looking at the season as a whole, we really struggled to overcome our terrible perimeter shooting, and the lack of experience on our roster started to show in conference play as other teams made adjustments that we were seemingly unable to make.

We shoot threes .334, which is 11th in the CAA, but only slightly below the CAA's average. If we shot the same amount of attempts with the percentage that the other 13 teams combined for, we would have made 4 more threes in 31 games, for 0.39 more points per game. We don't shoot threes "terrible." Furthermore, who knows if Gadsden and Sanders will be available, and if you take them out, we shoot threes .354, which would be second in the CAA.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2025/3/4/men ... ggies.aspx is our preview titled "Pride Opens CAA Championship With Rematch Against Aggies."

https://s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/side ... game32.pdf is our Game Notes.

If you think winning five games in five days is hard, https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/ ... racket.pdf has the Sun Belt bracket, which also has 14 teams. They have four teams enter in the First Round, and two teams enter in each of the next five rounds. Seeds 11 through 14 need to win seven consecutive days to win, with the middle five being against teams in their first tournament game. If we got the 11 seed in the Sun Belt, winning would require defeating the 14, 10, 7, 6, 3, 2, and the winner of the other half that the 1 seed would only need to win one game to win.

People have been commenting on the Sun Belt bracket all season since it came out just before season started. It's a crazy bracket but compared to others, it probably does make the regular season the most meaningful, which was the goal. No matter who wins, it feels the most deserved. If one of the high seeds wins, it's what everyone expects. If one of the lower seeds makes it through that kind of gauntlet and wins the tourney, it's hard to say it was a fluke the way it can be with other conference tourneys.

Last year, they had the same 14-team format that the CAA currently uses. I wonder if the CAA would consider the same change.

There's also the annual talk of expanding the NCAA tournament. Imagine if the NCAA eliminated the First Four and went to 72 teams, four regions (as now) 18 teams per region, with a Sun Belt-styled format for each region? It would similarly reward the best teams throughout the season, would give lower seeded teams more chances to get NCAA tourney wins (the way the First Four does for 16 seeds, even though I don't consider those "real" NCAA tourney wins, but I would with that format), and if Cinderellas went on deep runs through their own regions, they would be fun to see with that kind of format as the opponent seeds gradually got higher with each round. Conversely, it's merely a lot of luck-of-the-draw stuff depending on prior-round upsets today.

[stuball888]

If the NCAA were to expand, they would go to 96 teams
The NIT will then go to 64 teams
Follow the money