MBB Game 25 Sat, Feb 8 vs Stony Brook 4 PM

[Mikey77]

If you read Speedy's comments in today's Newsday it seems like this team has quit. Don't recall seeing that in a HU team even in the laptop days. As stated previously, i have no idea how or why this team went off the rails, but I knew watching the Temple game something was not right. Subsequently there have only been a couple of good games (Delaware and Elon come to mind). This whole season has been a bit odd (including Speedy missing the UNCW game). HU athletics are hardly transparent so we'll likely never know what went wrong. The accumulation of losing players to NIL (Dubar and Carlos for example) as well as David Green and K Cramer, together with some dubious recruiting is now showing and taking its toll.

[HUSID74]

It's remarkable how many big leads we have blown in CAA play...even yesterday we were up by eight midway through the second half and seemingly in control.
It would be interesting for Evan to take a look at that.

Jerry Beach had an alarming stat to that end last night...


"Random Hofstra stat: Per KenPom, the Dutchmen had a win probability of 95.7% when they were up 60-52 w/6:52 left. It's the 10th loss in which Hofstra had a win probability of at least 70%, the sixth loss w/a win prob of at least 80% & the second loss w/a win prob of at least 95%."

https://x.com/JerryBeach73/status/18884 ... IGAqw&s=19

That is very telling...the team cannot close out opponents but WHY is the question.

[Mark19th]

Speedy gets a ‘Mulligan’ for this season’s disaster. A repeat next year and he’s on the hot seat. What sticks out for me is he never takes personal responsibility for everything that’s gone wrong. It’s always his players who aren’t tough enough. Who recruited and coached them? And who encouraged his two best players…JC and Dstone to transfer?


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[stuball888]

Jon I will answer your question why we can't close out these games
At the college level and at some point even in the pros, your best player takes the game over when there's less than five minutes left we have no one like that we used to
Remember players like speedy Charles Jenkins JWFY Green And of course, Buie and Pemberton also Estrada and Thomas
Davis and Arunguren do not fit the bill yet they are sophomores
So maybe yes, we chalk the season up as a rebuilding year
Curious as to what our team will look like next year

[Wags]

Jon I will answer your question why we can't close out these games
At the college level and at some point even in the pros, your best player takes the game over when there's less than five minutes left we have no one like that we used to
Remember players like speedy Charles Jenkins JWFY Green And of course, Buie and Pemberton also Estrada and Thomas
Davis and Arunguren do not fit the bill yet they are sophomores
So maybe yes, we chalk the season up as a rebuilding year
Curious as to what our team will look like next year

They're extremely streaky. So, when they're on, they're building those double-digit first-half leads, as we saw. But when they're off, it's exactly what Stu is saying here - no real go-to guy as in the past. But it's not just down the stretch, it's at various points throughout the game. Just about every game, they have multiple times (they did it again in this game on Saturday) when they'll miss, 3, 4, 5 or more shots in a row, often a couple of different times in the first half and a couple of different times in the second half. Those kinds of droughts or even mini droughts are what turned a few of these would-be wins into losses. The guys from the past like Stu mentions above would have stopped those streaks. They are not good enough to afford 0/3 and later 0/5, then 0/4, and then later, another 0/5. Time and time again, the opposition has either gotten back in it or pulled away when that has happened. Those streaks have really been the difference between 4-8 in the CAA right now and what could've been about 7-5 or 8-4.

[HUSID74]

Jon I will answer your question why we can't close out these games
At the college level and at some point even in the pros, your best player takes the game over when there's less than five minutes left we have no one like that we used to
Remember players like speedy Charles Jenkins JWFY Green And of course, Buie and Pemberton also Estrada and Thomas
Davis and Arunguren do not fit the bill yet they are sophomores
So maybe yes, we chalk the season up as a rebuilding year
Curious as to what our team will look like next year

They're extremely streaky. So, when they're on, they're building those double-digit first-half leads, as we saw. But when they're off, it's exactly what Stu is saying here - no real go-to guy as in the past. But it's not just down the stretch, it's at various points throughout the game. Just about every game, they have multiple times (they did it again in this game on Saturday) when they'll miss, 3, 4, 5 or more shots in a row, often a couple of different times in the first half and a couple of different times in the second half. Those kinds of droughts or even mini droughts are what turned a few of these would-be wins into losses. The guys from the past like Stu mentions above would have stopped those streaks. They are not good enough to afford 0/3 and later 0/5, then 0/4, and then later, another 0/5. Time and time again, the opposition has either gotten back in it or pulled away when that has happened. Those streaks have really been the difference between 4-8 in the CAA right now and what could've been about 7-5 or 8-4.

Wags, I certainly agree on that assessment but I thought by now this team would have worked through it. Jean seems to have the potential but he needs diversfy his offense a bit. I did like the way he flashed to the top of the key for some short jumpers against SBU. Cruz could also be a take charge leader as the PG but he disappears on offense often.
I'm not sure I agree with Speedy that its a matter of toughness as I believe this group plays hard...check out our defensive stats...although against SBU we allowed way to many open threes.

[stuball888]

Also against NU we could not stop them from getting into the paint that takes toughness on defense

[Wags]

I think Speedy is referring especially to the last three games as far as toughness.

They were generally showing toughness up to that point, through the win at Elon (even through the losses, mixed with the wins). But they were blown out before halftime at Campbell and then uncharacteristically for them this season, allowed 41 and 49 in the second halves of their last two games. I think Speedy expects that defense to continue because it's the only way this team (as constructed) can win, gutting out lower scoring games with good second-half D. So when he sees the 41 and 49 and two L's that probably should've been wins at home, it's viewed as lacking toughness (and maybe it is, to some degree). But when you put so much pressure on your offense all season and your defense has been digging in so much to try to save each game from your own offensive inconsistency or at times, ineptitude, eventually that pressure succumbs and you start to show cracks in defense that was previously good for most of the year.

But Speedy may also be referring to what Mihalich used to note, that toughness isn't only physical and defensively, it's also mentally and offensively ("toughness with the ball," Mihalich used to say, protecting the ball, making smart, quick, and focused decisions with the ball). When you lack that mentally and offensively, that's how you blow leads of 18 at Towson, 12 at Drexel, 18 at home against Campbell, and eight at home against Stony Brook with under eight left.

[dutchPride86]

But Speedy may also be referring to what Mihalich used to note, that toughness isn't only physical and defensively, it's also mentally and offensively ("toughness with the ball," Mihalich used to say, protecting the ball, making smart, quick, and focused decisions with the ball). When you lack that mentally and offensively, that's how you blow leads of 18 at Towson, 12 at Drexel, 18 at home against Campbell, and eight at home against Stony Brook with under eight left.

Totally agree Wags. I sadly see a lot of parallels between what happened to the Jets this year and what's happening to Hofstra right now. Close losses early against a difficult schedule, frustratingly simple mistakes (penalties for the jets, bad turnovers for Hofstra), and a feeling of playing at a schematic disadvantage most games. Instead of correcting the mistakes and pulling themselves out of it, Jets lost belief in themselves and the season death spiraled. Same thing happening to Hofstra now.

Jets have obviously had a rotten culture forever. Hofstra hasn't, but with almost entirely a new team there were no players to instill that culture for all the new guys, and clearly the coaches haven't been able to properly build the confidence these players needed.

Now that Speedy is publicly doubting his roster, it's hard to see them recovering in any real way

[dutchPride86]

Speedy gets a ‘Mulligan’ for this season’s disaster. A repeat next year and he’s on the hot seat. What sticks out for me is he never takes personal responsibility for everything that’s gone wrong. It’s always his players who aren’t tough enough. Who recruited and coached them? And who encouraged his two best players…JC and Dstone to transfer?


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The lack of accountability from Speedy has also really bothered me, but it's for exactly that reason I can't give him a "mulligan" for this year. Throwing his players under the bus is just a really off-putting approach, even if there's some truth behind it.

As you said, it's not like someone forced them to pick up Sanders and Gadsden out of the portal. And like which player was it exactly that chose to draw up that ridiculous final play at Towson? Or play an ice cold Robinson down the stretch of countless games? Or fail to give DeCady anywhere near enough meaningful minutes to develop

[HUSID74]

I think the real issue to this season is that Sanders has become a total non-factor. If he playes like he did early in the season, i.e. Iona we have three bona-fide threats to score insode or outside...would have made a huge difference this year.
What happened to him is the great mystery of this season.

[The Shadow]

I agree with HUSID74. Not having a true third option that is a scoring threat on offense changed the entire game plan. For whatever reasons, whether physical, mental, or family, his entire game has changed. I believe this has affected the dynamics of the entire team and probably occurred, as we have discussed, before the Temple game in December. Speedy and staff will have a very busy spring with recruiting, NILs, scheduling, etc. This shapes up to be a very important few weeks. My Dad has suggested that many changes will be occurring.

[Jojogunne]

I think another factor no one has yet mentioned is the loss of former assistant coach Serge Clement, who is now down at GMU working with Head Coach Tony Skinn (of all people):

https://gomason.com/sports/mens-basketb ... ement/1525

I don't know why Serge left, but he had the reputation of being a recruiting guru, with connections throughout the tri-state area. I believe he helped bring Aaron Estrada here.

Recruiting has changed a lot over the past couple of years, but the foundation remains building and maintaining relationships with HS and AAU coaches. Who's taking the lead on that for us now? We can't just sit back and wait until players pop up in the transfer portal.

[Wags]

I think another factor no one has yet mentioned is the loss of former assistant coach Serge Clement, who is now down at GMU working with Head Coach Tony Skinn (of all people):

https://gomason.com/sports/mens-basketb ... ement/1525

I don't know why Serge left, but he had the reputation of being a recruiting guru, with connections throughout the tri-state area. I believe he helped bring Aaron Estrada here.

Recruiting has changed a lot over the past couple of years, but the foundation remains building and maintaining relationships with HS and AAU coaches. Who's taking the lead on that for us now? We can't just sit back and wait until players pop up in the transfer portal.

Funny that I read this now because right before I did, I was thinking... when is the last time a Hofstra player won a CAA Rookie of the Week award?

[Mikey77]

probably amar'e marshall

[Wags]

probably amar'e marshall

I think so. So, not once in the past two years. And before him?