2026 CAA MBB Tournament

[dutchPride86]

Are the awards handed out today does anyone know? Has to be before the tourney starts obviously!!

It should be this afternoon.

Also, Hofstra as a 3, not only higher than the 2, but much closer to the 1 than the 2. People liking Hofstra's chances.

https://x.com/JonRothstein/status/2029575012441538579

Our non-conference strength of schedule, volume of road games, the two ACC wins, CAA margin of victory, and lack of blowout losses have all kept our metrics at the top of the league. We are right behind UNCW in the NET (90 to 93) and tops in the CAA and only top 100 team on Kenpom, with as of today both top 100 offensive and defensive ratings. The computers like us.

Eye test certainly Charleston shouldn't be that far behind us. But I am more concerned about facing W&M than Charleston, and the metrics all have W&M still ranked ahead Charleston fwiw.

[Jojogunne]

I'm not a betting man. What does +220 mean?

[Mark19th]

Bet 100. Win 220.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Mark19th]

Plus 100 back.


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[cactus]

correct, a $100 bet pays $320.

also, +220 odds equates to the books putting them at approximately a 31.25 % chance to win the tournament (100/320).

[EvanJ]

correct, a $100 bet pays $320.

also, +220 odds equates to the books putting them at approximately a 31.25 % chance to win the tournament (100/320).

If you do 100/odds for every team and use it to make probabilities, you get 1.164. From looking at soccer odds, I am used to it adding up to 1.05 to 1.1, so 1.164 is higher, and the higher the sum is, the more money oddsmakers are trying to make. 1.164 is about 7/6ths, so the oddsmakers' expected payout is 6/7ths of what is bet, meaning their expected profit is 1/7th of what is bet. In statistics, expected values refer to the mean, and an expected value can be impossible. For example, the expected value of a die is 3.5 because that is the mean of the numbers from 1 to 6, but you cannot roll 3.5. Probability must add up to 1, so you need to divide each probability by the sum. That makes:

UNCW: 31.2 percent
Us: 26.8 percent
Charleston: 10.7 percent
Monmouth: 7.8 percent
W&M: 7.2 percent
Towson: 5.1 percent
Drexel: 3.1 percent
Campbell: 2.8 percent
Stony Brook: 2.1 percent
Elon: 1.3 percent
Hampton: 0.9 percent
NC A&T: 0.7 percent
Northeastern: 0.4 percent
It adds up to 100.1 percent because of rounding. 1/13th is 7.7 percent. That means that four teams have a higher probability than the mean, and nine teams have a lower probability than the mean. We are a little higher than third through fifth combined. I think if you asked people to say who is more likely to win between us or any of Charleston, Monmouth, or W&M, that everybody would pick the group. I wish there was a way of finding out where Monmouth would rank out of all teams starting from when Kavion McClain started playing. Jason Rivera-Torres and McClain, and Davis and Edmead could be the teammates most likely to score at least 20 points each in the same game. W&M uses their bench a lot, which could be useful if they reach the Final and are playing for the fourth consecutive day.

[cactus]

Thank you Evan for the detailed explanation.
31.25% is the implied probability before you remove the book's commission.

[Wags]

UNCW: 31.2 percent
Us: 26.8 percent
Charleston: 10.7 percent

Seems about as good as you could hope for as a 3 seed. Didn't need this to tell us, but it back it up even more - they have a legit shot.

[EvanJ]

The tournament's technology is off to a bad start. https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652807 says "Starters will be posted shortly..." after the game started. ESPN's score is behind rather than in real time, which is probably because it is impossible to get the score in real time. Like in the past, the CAA is sponsored by UNCW's Cameron School of Business.

[Wags]

The tournament's technology is off to a bad start. https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652807 says "Starters will be posted shortly..." after the game started. ESPN's score is behind rather than in real time, which is probably because it is impossible to get the score in real time. Like in the past, the CAA is sponsored by UNCW's Cameron School of Business.

Yeah, disappointing with Statbroadcast and ESPN.

CBS seems to be the most reliable right one now:
https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... EAST@NCAT/

[Wags]

The tournament's technology is off to a bad start. https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652807 says "Starters will be posted shortly..." after the game started.

Embarrassing. But same conference that uses FloSports instead of ESPN+ so...

https://x.com/CAABasketball/status/2029997238156444080

[stuball888]

You can go to ESPN go to men's basketball click in scores and then go to CAA. It has life stats there.
As of now northeastern is leading Nca&t by 13

[EvanJ]

https://hamptonpirates.com/news/2026/3/ ... ament.aspx is Hampton's preview of their game against Towson. They wrote "And therein is the lesson: the Pirates will look for a low-scoring, tight defensive affair. An up tempo free-wheeling game would not play to Hampton's strengths." I never expect a team to write that something is not their strength.

[Jojogunne]

You can go to ESPN go to men's basketball click in scores and then go to CAA. It has life stats there.
As of now northeastern is leading Nca&t by 13

Northeastern won, 88-72.

[Wags]

You can go to ESPN go to men's basketball click in scores and then go to CAA. It has life stats there.
As of now northeastern is leading Nca&t by 13

Northeastern won, 88-72.

2-0 vs. NC A&T
5-23 vs. everyone else.

Might be the best showing ever in the CAA tournament from a last-place team, especially one with fewer than three CAA wins coming in.

[EvanJ]

https://caasports.com/boxscore.aspx?id= ... ath=mbball is the box score with a really long URL. Northeastern had 43 bench points because their two leading scorers did not start. Xavier Abreu scored 18 in 17 minutes, which tied Mike Loughnane for the most on either team. Leading scorer William Kermoury scored 14. Northeastern made half of their field goals, and had 11 steals. They scored 8 in the first 6:39 and trailed by 3 before scoring 32 in 13 minutes. They led 40-24 at halftime. NC A&T scored twice as much in the second half as in the first half. Northeastern's largest lead was 20, and they led by 11 to 20 in all of the second half. NC A&T shot .411, and made only 3 threes. After letting us make 11 threes, Northeastern has allowed 4 or fewer threes in three of their last four games. Lewis Walker led them with 17 points. He shot field goals 2-10, and free throws 13-14. Zamoku Welucje-Ume had 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Northeastern will play Drexel tomorrow at 2:30 P.M.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cT2L7lGRNzs is highlights.

[EvanJ]

https://www.flohoops.com/live/239144 has video of 8 seed Stony Brook vs. 9 seed Campbell. The odds and KenPom expect the worse seed to win. Campbell is favored by 2.5, and KenPom expects Campbell to win 76-74. Stony Brook won by 12 at Campbell, and did not host Campbell.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652808 has statistics. Unlike yesterday, they are working. Campbell's Muneer Newton, who averages 6.5 points, scored 8 points in the first 5:20. Stony Brook leads 17-15, but Campbell could tie it with 2 free throws after the first media timeout. Both teams have three scorers. The current pace is for each team to have three players score at least 19, and have nobody score 1 to 18. That won't happen, but I still typed about it. The teams combined to shoot 14-22 (.636), and shot threes 4-6 (.667), which is better than they shots twos. Campbell's Dovydas Butka averages 2.4 assists. He had 3 assists at the first media timeout. Campbell does not have anybody averaging at least 3 assists. Newton had 8 points without missing and 2 rebounds, but Campbell subbed him out at the first media timeout.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652809 will have statistics of 5 seed Drexel vs. 13 seed Northeastern. Drexel won by 5 at home and by 9 at Northeastern.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652810 will have statistics of 7 seed Towson vs. 10 seed Hampton. Hampton won by 1 at home, but Towson won by 32 hosting Hampton.

https://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=652811 will have statistics of 6 seed William & Mary vs. 11 seed Elon, and the winner will play us. Elon won both regular season games by 3.

Edit: Stony Brook leads 21-17. The teams combined to score 38 without any turnovers.

Edit: Stony Brook's Andrej Shoshkikj made a three to go up 26-19 and make Campbell call timeout with 11:45 left in the half. Shoshkikj has 10 points. I wonder what the record is for points in a CAA Tournament game by a freshman. Stony Brook is on pace to win 126-92. The record for points by a team is 110. The record for points by a player is 42 by Justin Wright-Foreman. Campbell made a three to go down 26-22.

Edit: Campbell could finish the tournament with the biggest improvement after a timeout. They are on a 15-2 run to go up 34-28.

Edit: Campbell leads 39-33. Dovydas Butka tied his career-high of 7 assists with 5:00 left in the first half. The CAA Tournament record is 14 by Doug Wojcik, who got to pass to David Robinson. Muneer Newton has 12 points, and he still has not passed. Andrej Shoshkikj leads all players with 13 points.

Edit: Campbell leads 48-40 at halftime. Northeastern and NC A&T scored 48 in the second half yesterday, so three of the last four team halves had 48. Campbell's top two scorers for the season are D.J. Smith, who scored 5, and Jeremiah Johnson, who scored 3. Campbell used seven players, and they got 40 points from players other than their top two scorers for the season. Dovydas Butka is on pace for a triple-double with 10 points, 7 assists, and 5 rebounds. I wonder if any player has ever had a triple-double including double-digits in a statistic for the first time in his career. Muneer Newton had 12 points without missing and 4 rebounds. Tasos Cook scored 9 by making 1 three and 6 free throws without missing. Campbell shot threes 3-5, and it is unusual to have 39 points not from threes in a half. Campbell had a great ratio of 10 assists to 2 turnovers. Stony Brook had only 10 rebounds. They had 5 defensive rebounds, and Campbell had 8 offensive rebounds, so Campbell got the rebound of over 60 percent of their misses. That included getting an offensive rebound and calling their second timeout before going out of bounds. The timeout worked because Stony Brook fouled before the ball was inbounded, and Campbell made 2 free throws. Stony Brook's Andrej Shoshkikj leads all players with 15 points, Rob Brown III scored 12, Erik Pratt scored 11, and Stony Brook's other six players combined for 2 points and no field goals. Stony Brook is on pace to have three players score at least 22 in a loss by 16. Stony Brook did not have anybody with more than 2 rebounds, and Campbell has the top four rebounders. Stony Brook made half of their field goals, and 9 of 11 free throws. Stony Brook did not have any points off turnovers. Campbell attempted 2 more field goals, and 6 more free throws. Nobody blocked a shot. Seven players including Butka, Cook, Pratt, and Shoshkikj committed 2 fouls.

[Jojogunne]

Halfway through the second half Campbell leads, 65-51.

[EvanJ]

Campbell led by 16, but Stony Brook is now down 79-75. Both teams are in the double bonus. The statistics stopped working at 77-66 with 5:57 left. It is a long game, and it will be longer if Stony Brook forces overtime.

Edit: Campbell won 96-89. Campbell scored 48 in each half, and Stony Brook scored 49 in the second half. The statistics are not working. Five of the eight team halves today and yesterday had at least 48 points. It was Campbell's first CAA Tournament win. and UNCW has got to prepare to play defense tomorrow.

[EvanJ]

Drexel leads Northeastern 39-17 with 2:01 left in the first half. Drexel is up 22 without any points from Shane Blakeney, who is their only player who averages double-digits. Victor Panov leads all players with 12 points, and he shot threes 4-4. Drexel is shooting threes 8-11. The CAA Tournament record for threes is 18 by Delaware last year.

Edit: Drexel leads 39-22 at halftime. They had a chance to reach 40, but with 6.2 seconds left, Blakeney missed 2 free throws to remain scoreless. He shot field goals 0-4, and his last one went in and out. Panov still leads all players with 12, and Mike Loughnane leads Northeastern with 7. Northeastern's Liam Koelsch leads all players with 5 rebounds in 6 minutes off the bench. Despote only scoring 22, Northeastern had more assists (7) than turnovers (6). The teams combined to shoot free throws 3-9.

Edit: https://caasports.com/boxscore.aspx?id= ... ath=mbball has the box score of the first game. Stony Brook's Andrej Shoshkikj scored 35, including 15 in the last 5:41. He became the eighth player this season to make at least 10 field goals, at least 5 threes, and at least 10 free throws. Hampton's Michael Eley did not do that when he scored 43. Shoshkikj became the sixth CAA player from 2010-2011 to do that, and the first player since Tyler Thomas in a 97-92 win over High Point to win the Gulf Coast Showcase on November 22, 2023. That game went overtime, but Thomas had 10+, 5+, and 10+ before overtime. Shoshkikj became the first Stony Brook player from 2010-2011 to now to do that, and the 15th freshman from 2010-2011 to do that, so freshmen did that about once a year. He became the fourth freshman to do that this season, so freshmen did that more often this season. Teams are 1-3 this season when a freshman does that, albeit the two losses before today were in overtime. Campbell had five players score at least 12, and all seven of their players scored at least 8. Jeremiah Johnson led them with 20. Campbell shot free throws 37-56 (.661), as they came close to the CAA Tournament record of 39 free throws made. The 56 attempts tied this season's season-high. That was by New Orleans, who needed overtime to get that many attempts. Campbell had the most free throw attempts in regulation since UNCW in a 92-84 win hosting Georgia Southern on November 8, 2024. In the last nine years, two CAA teams in North Carolina attempted at least 56 free throws against a Division I team in a game that did not go overtime, and all other Division I teams (currently 361) never did that.