Around the CAA

[Wags]

Some good tidbits here about Hofstra's competitiveness this season from our very good friend Jerry Beach:

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... mpton.html

* Hofstra is just one of 12 Division I schools nationwide and one of only two CAA teams (UNCW) without a double-digit loss this season.
* Besides Hofstra and UNCW, only three other mid-majors (Miami Ohio, Saint Louis, and Stephen F. Austin) have avoided a double-digit loss this year.
* The seven power league teams that have avoided a double-digit loss are Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Michigan, Nebraska, Houston, and Florida.
* Besides the CAA, only two other conferences (the Big 10 and Big 12) have multiple teams that have avoided a double-digit loss this season.

[dutchPride86]

Some good tidbits here about Hofstra's competitiveness this season from our very good friend Jerry Beach:

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... mpton.html

* Hofstra is just one of 12 Division I schools nationwide and one of only two CAA teams (UNCW) without a double-digit loss this season.
* Besides Hofstra and UNCW, only three other mid-majors (Miami Ohio, Saint Louis, and Stephen F. Austin) have avoided a double-digit loss this year.
* The seven power league teams that have avoided a double-digit loss are Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Michigan, Nebraska, Houston, and Florida.
* Besides the CAA, only two other conferences (the Big 10 and Big 12) have multiple teams that have avoided a double-digit loss this season.

This is part of what's made this season so frustrating at times for me. We're only 5-8 in games decided by 5 points or less (and only 3-5 in CAA play in such spots). The team follows successfully closing out a tough game in Charleston by immediately failing in clutch time next time out at UNCW. The inconsistency and lack of success in those spots to me reflects more on failures in coaching rather than lack of talent or players scared of the big moment.

Yes championship teams are competitive in every game, but they dont have losing records in the clutch. Makes it very hard to be confident in them in the DC despite feeling like they can beat anyone in the league.

[Wags]

Some good tidbits here about Hofstra's competitiveness this season from our very good friend Jerry Beach:

https://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/202 ... mpton.html

* Hofstra is just one of 12 Division I schools nationwide and one of only two CAA teams (UNCW) without a double-digit loss this season.
* Besides Hofstra and UNCW, only three other mid-majors (Miami Ohio, Saint Louis, and Stephen F. Austin) have avoided a double-digit loss this year.
* The seven power league teams that have avoided a double-digit loss are Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Michigan, Nebraska, Houston, and Florida.
* Besides the CAA, only two other conferences (the Big 10 and Big 12) have multiple teams that have avoided a double-digit loss this season.

This is part of what's made this season so frustrating at times for me. We're only 5-8 in games decided by 5 points or less (and only 3-5 in CAA play in such spots). The team follows successfully closing out a tough game in Charleston by immediately failing in clutch time next time out at UNCW. The inconsistency and lack of success in those spots to me reflects more on failures in coaching rather than lack of talent or players scared of the big moment.

Yes championship teams are competitive in every game, but they dont have losing records in the clutch. Makes it very hard to be confident in them in the DC despite feeling like they can beat anyone in the league.

The main takeaway from Jerry's facts was really that they are one of the very few teams in the nation that are in every game. That alone (provided they get a top-four seed) gives them a good, fighting chance in DC.

However, the point you're raising is a fair concern. To win three in three days there, you more than likely have to be capable of winning a close one (or more) at some point (see 2023, when they were a 1 seed and absolutely dominated W&M in the quarters but then lost a close OT battle to 4th-seeded UNCW the next day).

Coaching is a factor with that (obviously, some here perhaps rightfully have complained about taking the air out of the ball with a big second-half lead instead of continuing to attack, for instance), but often times it has come down to their players being who they've been within their limitations. They've all been good at times, but not perfect. Just one example: even in Davis' biggest games, he can get red hot, then ice cold. When he scored 28 in the second half in the loss to Elon, he made 8 of his first 9 shots, then finished the game missing 8 of 9 shots. Not a lot changed approach wise from Elon's defense that Hofstra had to adjust to, and many of those misses were the same types of shots he had been making earlier, but he just missed. And sometimes, when the shots that were falling no longer fall, the collective defensive intensity can sag at the other end and cost them in close games - granted, that part, at least from a motivational if not a schematic standpoint, is in part, coaching.

That's where if they can primarily do a good enough job on the glass and get enough stops, and can simply make just a couple of timely late shots, they can get by in a tight tournament game. And I'll keep coming back to this one: 14-1 (12-1 vs. DI) this year when allowing under 70 points. So yeah, more than anything, the stops and the defensive glass (which despite coaching's impact, largely come down to wanting it more and effort).

[dutchPride86]

So out morbid curiosity took a look at other CAA "contenders" records in games decided by 5 pts or less:

- UNCW: 6-1 (4-0 in caa play)

-Charleston: 8-1 (6-1 in caa, we're the only team to beat them. Though they did also lose to Stony by 6 in 2 OT)

-Monmouth: 5-5 (3-3 caa. But 2-0 with pair of 1 point wins since adding McClain)

- Stony Brook: 6-3 (4-3 caa. 7-3 and 5-3 if you count the CofC 2ot game)

So the other 4 teams with winning records in conference to date have all been better than Hofstra in close games overall.

And yet, we have close wins ourselves against 2 of them. So what does that prove?

I'm not sure if I helped or hurt my argument

[Wags]

So out morbid curiosity took a look at other CAA "contenders" records in games decided by 5 pts or less:

- UNCW: 6-1 (4-0 in caa play)

-Charleston: 8-1 (6-1 in caa, we're the only team to beat them. Though they did also lose to Stony by 6 in 2 OT)

-Monmouth: 5-5 (3-3 caa. But 2-0 with pair of 1 point wins since adding McClain)

- Stony Brook: 6-3 (4-3 caa. 7-3 and 5-3 if you count the CofC 2ot game)

So the other 4 teams with winning records in conference to date have all been better than Hofstra in close games overall.

And yet, we have close wins ourselves against 2 of them. So what does that prove?

I'm not sure if I helped or hurt my argument

Those records, along with Hofstra's in those situations kind of tells me that the two teams we thought for a while (prior to Hofstra's win at Charleston) - UNCW and Charleston - may be the most likely to pull out the close wins when they'd need them to reach the finals and face each other there. But a lot of ball left. We shall see if it ends up that way or something else. Those close-game records could obviously change for everyone before DC. Would be interesting to look at this again after everyone has played a full 18 in the CAA.

[dutchPride86]

Lol So apparently Charleston just found a new judge to overrule the last one... Connor Hickman is eligible to play again effective immediately. College Basketball in 2026

https://x.com/i/status/2024622805036241366

[Wags]

Lol So apparently Charleston just found a new judge to overrule the last one... Connor Hickman is eligible to play again effective immediately. College Basketball in 2026

https://x.com/i/status/2024622805036241366

Figured that would happen when it was mentioned his attorney would try to stay the court order. He's already back, playing tonight.

[Wags]

Campbell gets a big win, moving to 7-7, edging W&M, 84-83, on a layup at the buzzer. The Camels, which started 3-1 in CAA play, then went 0-5, are 4-1 since (very similar to Hofstra's 4-0, then 0-5, now 5-1 after tonight).

Drexel took care of Northeastern to get to 8-7.

Charleston won at NC A&T to get to 11-4, and it looked like they could gain on UNCW before the Seahawks pulled away from Monmouth late, to get to 12-2 and 23-4. That game helps Hofstra, which at 9-6, moves past Monmouth, which drops to 8-6.

Hampton drops down to that next tier at 6-8.

[EvanJ]

Charleston won 74-61 at NC A&T. Charleston's Jlynn Counter and NC A&T's Lewis Walker tied for the most points with 16. Counter had 7 assists. Charleston's Chris Davis Jr. had the only double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds.

Drexel won 70-61 at Northeastern. Drexel's Victor Panov and Northeastern's Xavier Abreu tied for the most points with 19. Panov shot 7-10, had 7 rebounds to tie for the most among all players, and had 5 assists to lead all players.

UNCW won 79-69 hosting Monmouth. Monmouth's Kavion McClain scored 27, but he committed 6 turnovers. UNCW had a whopping six players score double-digits, and Nolan Hodge led them with 16 points, including 4 threes. UNCW point guard Greedy Williams scored 7, and did not have an assist. UNCW's Patrick Wessler had a double-double with 13 points and 12 rebounds, but he did not shoot well.

Campbell won 84-83 hosting W&M. Campbell's Jeremiah Johnson led all CAA players tonight with 32 points, including the winning shot at the buzzer. he had 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and scored or assisted on all of his team's field goals in the first half. He became the tenth player and second CAA player this season to have at least 32 points, at least 7 rebounds, and at least 7 assists. Stony Brook's Erik Pratt did that in a 112-106 win hosting Charleston on January 17, but he got his seventh rebound in double overtime. He became the first CAA player to have at least 32, 7, and 7 in regulation since Elon's Steven Santa Ana in an 86-66 win at Towson on March 2, 2019.

[Wags]

Towson at Drexel on CBS Sports Network at 2 pm today. After that one, the fifth-place Dragons will either be:

1.0 GB or 2.0 GB Hofstra
0.5 GB or 1.5 GB Stony Brook
0.5 GA of or 0.5 GB Monmouth
0.5 GA or 1.5 GA of Campbell and W&M

Towson will either pull into a three-way tie with Campbell and W&M or drop into a three-way tie with Hampton and Elon.

[dutchPride86]

So this website is always great for calculating conference seeding this time of year...

https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb


We know Hofstra is no worse than the 3 seed if we win out and finish 12-6. Not even going to entertain 10-8 scenarios. But it appears any 11-7 finish should still get us top 4, even in the event of 3-way tie. Because Stony is playing Monmouth on Thurs, it removes any possibility of a 4 way tie if we win either game and finish 11-7:

- Hofstra, Drexel, Monmouth at 11-7: hofstra 3
- Stony, hofstra, drexel at 11-7: hofstra 4
-Stony, hofstra, Monmouth at 11-7: hofstra 4
- Stony 12-6, hofstra 11-7: hofstra 4 (every other team has 8 losses in that scenario)


The possibilities for who our posible opponent would be as a 5-6 seed are endless though, you can play around with all the outcomes on that website

[Wags]

So this website is always great for calculating conference seeding this time of year...

https://bball.notnothing.net/caa.php?sport=mbb


We know Hofstra is no worse than the 3 seed if we win out and finish 12-6. Not even going to entertain 10-8 scenarios. But it appears any 11-7 finish should still get us top 4, even in the event of 3-way tie. Because Stony is playing Monmouth on Thurs, it removes any possibility of a 4 way tie if we win either game and finish 11-7:

- Hofstra, Drexel, Monmouth at 11-7: hofstra 3
- Stony, hofstra, drexel at 11-7: hofstra 4
-Stony, hofstra, Monmouth at 11-7: hofstra 4
- Stony 12-6, hofstra 11-7: hofstra 4 (every other team has 8 losses in that scenario)


The possibilities for who our posible opponent would be as a 5-6 seed are endless though, you can play around with all the outcomes on that website

Thanks for posting! I forgot all about that site even though I have been using it around this time of year for the past couple of years. It IS a great site!

Drexel beat Towson at home, 68-62, today, ensuring that last year's regular season champs and this year's preseason favorite will not have a winning record in conference play this year.

I like that Drexel and Stony Brook are winning down the stretch to push Hofstra to do the same for a good seed. That's the only way to realistically compete for a title, rather than backing into a good seed by default - with two exceptions, of course! Let them both keep winning in the final week except for their games at Hofstra!

[Wags]

I have it as:

2/26: All home teams win except for Charleston.
2/28 & 3/1: All home teams win for except W&M.
3/3: All home teams win except for UNCW and Monmouth.

That would make it:

1. UNCW (16 - 2)
2. Charleston (13 - 5)
3. Hofstra (12 - 6)
4. Monmouth (11 - 7)
-----------------------------
5. Drexel (10 - 8) - Above W&M and Stony Brook based on round-robin record (2-1).
6. William & Mary (10 - 8) - Above Stony Brook and below Drexel based on round-robin record (1-1).
7. Stony Brook (10 - 8) - Below Drexel and W&M based on round-robin record (1-2).
8. Towson (8 - 10) - Above Campbell based on head-to-head record (1-0).
9. Campbell (8 - 10) - Below Towson based on head-to-head record (0-1).
10. Hampton (7 - 11)
11. Elon (6 - 12)
12. NC A&T (4 - 14)
13. Northeastern (2 - 16)

[Wags]

Based on ESPN's expected winning percentage in each of the regular season games, it's what I have above except with one exception that surprised me - ESPN expects Towson to win at Stony Brook (I expect Stony Brook to win). If ESPN's percentages prove true on all games, it'll finish like this:

1. UNCW (16 - 2)
2. Charleston (13 - 5)
3. Hofstra (12 - 6)
4. Monmouth (11 - 7)
5. Drexel (10 - 8) - Above W&M based on head-to-head record (1-0).
6. W&M (10 - 8) - Below Drexel based on head-to-head record (0-1).
7. Towson (9 - 9) - Above Stony Brook based on head-to-head record (2-0).
8. Stony Brook (9 - 9) - Below Towson based on head-to-head record (0-2).
9. Campbell (8 - 10)
10. Hampton (7 - 11)
11. Elon (6 - 12)
12. NC A&T (4 - 14)
13. Northeastern (2 - 16)

[dutchPride86]

Based on ESPN's expected winning percentage in each of the regular season games, it's what I have above except with one exception that surprised me - ESPN expects Towson to win at Stony Brook (I expect Stony Brook to win). If ESPN's percentages prove true on all games, it'll finish like this:

1. UNCW (16 - 2)
2. Charleston (13 - 5)
3. Hofstra (12 - 6)
4. Monmouth (11 - 7)
5. Drexel (10 - 8) - Above W&M based on head-to-head record (1-0).
6. W&M (10 - 8) - Below Drexel based on head-to-head record (0-1).
7. Towson (9 - 9) - Above Stony Brook based on head-to-head record (2-0).
8. Stony Brook (9 - 9) - Below Towson based on head-to-head record (0-2).
9. Campbell (8 - 10)
10. Hampton (7 - 11)
11. Elon (6 - 12)
12. NC A&T (4 - 14)
13. Northeastern (2 - 16)

That would be a near worst-case scenario on potential opponent for me. While I think Hofstra is more than capable of beating every team in this league (including UNCW), the only two I'd really be worried about seeing before the semis are W&M and Monmouth.

While W&M has been disappointing I still think they might have highest ceiling of any non-top 4 team, and they certainly present a unique challenge for us defensively. Guarding bigs who can shoot on the perimeter may be Achilles heel of our defense, which W&M excels at. I'm sure UNCW is hoping W&M doesn't fall into the 8-9 game.

Monmouth is a different animal with McClain (and Collins healthy) and don't love the idea of having to beat them for a 3rd time. Remember McClain and Collins add like 25 pts and 10 ast to the team we handled at Monmouth earlier this season, and they gave us fits in the OT win at home.

But if we handle Stony and Drexel and take the 3 seed I'll still sign off for this and take my chances.

[EvanJ]

What you quoted has us 3 and Monmouth 4, in which case we could not play Monmouth before the Final. We would play W&M or Elon, both of whom won their only game against us.

With the game almost over, Towson's Dylan Williamson fell. He might be injured, and we will find out on Thursday.

Other results made us fall 1 spot to 94th in KenPom today.

The next CAA game on Thursday is Charleston at Hampton at 11:00 A.M. In a span of fourteen days, Hampton plays at 11:00 P.M. (it was 8:00 P.M. local in Los Angeles) and 11:00 A.M. If Charleston wins, they clinch finishing above us. If Hampton wins, we remain alive for the 2 seed, UNCW clinches the 1, and Hampton clinches being above NC A&T to avoid the 12 vs. 13 game. Hampton and NC A&T split, and NC A&T's win against us could be better than Hampton's best win.

[Wags]

While W&M has been disappointing I still think they might have highest ceiling of any non-top 4 team, and they certainly present a unique challenge for us defensively. Guarding bigs who can shoot on the perimeter may be Achilles heel of our defense, which W&M excels at. I'm sure UNCW is hoping W&M doesn't fall into the 8-9 game.

This interestingly has Hofstra with this best chance (30%) to win the tourney, above UNCW (26%), with Charleston and W&M each at 11%.

https://x.com/GuardUni/status/2025627545215910329

I don't see it that way. If Hofstra gets a 3 seed, they have a good shot, but I think UNCW has to have the best chance right now, and I would've given Charleston about double the chance as W&M.

I am guessing they're basing those percentages on the idea that W&M could be a real threat for UNCW in the quarters. Right now, UNCW is the 1 and W&M is an 8. If W&M gets by an 8/9 game and UNCW wins out before DC, that would be an interesting storyline the likes of which I don't think we've seen before in the CAA tourney: UNCW would enter such a matchup 16-0 against everyone else in the CAA, yet 0-2 against W&M.

[EvanJ]

While W&M has been disappointing I still think they might have highest ceiling of any non-top 4 team, and they certainly present a unique challenge for us defensively. Guarding bigs who can shoot on the perimeter may be Achilles heel of our defense, which W&M excels at. I'm sure UNCW is hoping W&M doesn't fall into the 8-9 game.

This interestingly has Hofstra with this best chance (30%) to win the tourney, above UNCW (26%), with Charleston and W&M each at 11%.

https://x.com/GuardUni/status/2025627545215910329

I don't see it that way. If Hofstra gets a 3 seed, they have a good shot, but I think UNCW has to have the best chance right now, and I would've given Charleston about double the chance as W&M.

I am guessing they're basing those percentages on the idea that W&M could be a real threat for UNCW in the quarters. Right now, UNCW is the 1 and W&M is an 8. If W&M gets by an 8/9 game and UNCW wins out before DC, that would be an interesting storyline the likes of which I don't think we've seen before in the CAA tourney: UNCW would enter such a matchup 16-0 against everyone else in the CAA, yet 0-2 against W&M.

W&M has easy games, so they could get better than the 8 seed. The CAA has never had a team finish with with 2 losses that were to the same opponent. That excludes the CAA Tournament.

[Wags]

While W&M has been disappointing I still think they might have highest ceiling of any non-top 4 team, and they certainly present a unique challenge for us defensively. Guarding bigs who can shoot on the perimeter may be Achilles heel of our defense, which W&M excels at. I'm sure UNCW is hoping W&M doesn't fall into the 8-9 game.

This interestingly has Hofstra with this best chance (30%) to win the tourney, above UNCW (26%), with Charleston and W&M each at 11%.

https://x.com/GuardUni/status/2025627545215910329

I don't see it that way. If Hofstra gets a 3 seed, they have a good shot, but I think UNCW has to have the best chance right now, and I would've given Charleston about double the chance as W&M.

I am guessing they're basing those percentages on the idea that W&M could be a real threat for UNCW in the quarters. Right now, UNCW is the 1 and W&M is an 8. If W&M gets by an 8/9 game and UNCW wins out before DC, that would be an interesting storyline the likes of which I don't think we've seen before in the CAA tourney: UNCW would enter such a matchup 16-0 against everyone else in the CAA, yet 0-2 against W&M.

W&M has easy games, so they could get better than the 8 seed. The CAA has never had a team finish with with 2 losses that were to the same opponent. That excludes the CAA Tournament.

Yeah, I would say it's likely that they will finish with the 6 seed.

[EvanJ]

Charleston at Hampton is starting soon. Charleston is not starting Connor Hickman. I do not know if he went from eligible to ineligible to eligible to ineligible, if he is injured, or if he will be a sub. Hampton is not starting any of their top three scorers. Michael Eley missed time, but he returned in their previous game. Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt missed two games including their previous game. Xzavier Long missed two games and played in their most recent game. Hampton is 9-1 at home, but they could get blown out without those guys, and a Charleston win would clinch them finishing above us. Hampton is one of 40 teams with 0 or 1 home loss.

Edit: Hampton did not start anybody who averages double-digits. Charleston leads 13-6.

Edit: Hickman, Eley, and Long entered the game. Charleston leads 14-6. Charleston has more rebounds 10 to 3.

Edit: Charleston led by 20 and won 85-71. Charleston's Martin Kalu led all players with 21 points. Christian Reeves had 16 points and 12 rebounds. Jlynn Counter scored 9. Chadlyn Traylor did not start, but he played 23 minutes and led all players with 7 assists. Charleston attempted only 11 threes, and they made 5. Hampton subbed on Xzavier Long after 3:51 was played, and he played the rest of the game. He led them with 14 points and 9 rebounds.

Tonight's games that are all at 7:00 P.M. are Campbell at Drexel, Northeastern at W&M, Stony Brook at Monmouth, NC A&T at UNCW, and Elon at Towson.

Charleston clinched finishing above us. If UNCW wins, and Northeastern upsets W&M, UNCW clinches the regular season title, and Charleston is locked into the 2 seed. UNCW won the first game against Charleston. If Charleston wins to make a split, UNCW wins the tiebreaker as long as Stony Brook and/or us finish above W&M. If UNCW and W&M win, UNCW's next chance to clinch the 1 seed is if W&M loses at NC A&T on Saturday. If UNCW loses, their next chance to clinch the 1 seed is hosting Charleston on Sunday night. I wonder how many times the 1 seed has been clinched on national TV.