https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... rojections has probabilities. It has separate probabilities for the regular season title and CAA Tournament. I don't know if I've ever seen a website give separate probabilities before. For each team, here is their expected CAA record, expected overall record, probability of the regular season, and probability of winning the CAA Tournament:
1. Charleston: 12.0-6.0, 17.7-10.3, 24.5%, 21.8%
2. Northeastern: 12.0-6.0, 17.9-10.1, 25.9%, 22.4%
3. Hofstra: 11.4-6.6, 18.8-11.2, 20.0%, 18.9%
4. Towson: 10.3-7.7, 15.2-12.8, 12.1%, 12.8%
5. William & Mary: 9.5-8.5, 15.8-15.2, 7.3%, 8.7%
6. Delaware: 8.0-10.0, 14.6-16.4, .5%, 4.8%
7. James Madison: 7.9-10.1, 13.6-15.4, 3.4%, 4.4%
8. Drexel: 7.1-10.9, 12.8-17.2, 1.6%, 2.9%
9. UNCW: 6.7-11.3, 2.7-18.3, 1.3%, 2.4%
10. Elon: 5.1-12.9, 9.7-20.3, 0.4%, 0.9%
The records exclude non-Division I games and games against unknown opponents. The math must have worked out that if you used more precision than one decimal place, Charleston would have more CAA wins, even though Northeastern is most likely to win both. They liked William & Mary better than Delaware and James Madison, which is different from other predictions.
In the CAA Tournament, they give us a 95.46% chance at making the Quarterfinals, 61.99% at making the Semifinals, 35.02% at making the Final, and 18.87% at winning the Final.
Here are the probabilities of each CAA Tournament seed followed by the probability of us winning the CAA Tournament if we get that seed. Multiplying the two numbers on each line and adding the ten products gives the 18.87%.
1: 20.0%, 38.3%
2: 19.5%, 25.5%
3: 16.4%, 16.9%
4: 12.7%, 12.3%
5: 10.3%, 9.0%
6: 7.8%, 7.4%
7: 5.7%, 4.3%
8: 4.0%, 2.6%
9: 2.4%, 1.7%
10: 1.2%, 1.0%