Ask Purdue about that and if they'd like to have that decision back. They'd otherwise be playing in the Final Four this Saturday.joeg1 wrote: Much easier to make a 3 than make a ft, miss and get a rebound and get a basket. That is common sense. Always foul. Ask Evan about Bayesian probability
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It may not be much easier to make that 3 than to get a rebound if that 3 is properly defended. If properly defended, and you're willing to give up the 2, it's extremely difficult to get off a good enough look from 3 that has a good chance of going in.
Not everything in sports comes down to a scientific formula. If you play good, solid defense, you only have one thing to worry about. Your chances great if you key on stopping the 3 and aren't worrying about anything else, even giving up a 2. If you foul, you open the door for a myriad of possibilities (one of which we saw Hofstra win a game on last year). Why worry about all of those when you can focus on just one thing that you can control?
Also, if you still don't defend the 3 well enough and give up a routine 3 (without fouling), you go to OT in the worst case. If you foul, you can give up a 4-point trip in a variety of ways, and now you lose in regulation. Why would you willingly open up the latter scenario when you don't have to? Sometimes, you just have to trust your defense and execute for one play.