Different Team

[stuball888]

This team continues to improve. Our first two road game we won in3OT and squeezed by Elon by 3. We go to JMU and blow them out by17. Question is this team closer to the two road wins earlier in the year or the one we saw last night. The next two games will give us a better idea

[Flying Dutchmen]

This team continues to improve. Our first two road game we won in3OT and squeezed by Elon by 3. We go to JMU and blow them out by17. Question is this team closer to the two road wins earlier in the year or the one we saw last night. The next two games will give us a better idea

I think we're still improving, but some of it is matchup based. Elon and W&M play a lot of halfcourt defense, they drop back after the shot, they didn't let us get in transition often. Both teams were also bombing 3 balls, Elon especially. I thought we had one good half against each team, the 1st at W&M, the 2nd at Elon. That's what makes Northeastern a tough test for us, they play similarly to W&M and Elon.

We put it together pretty well at JMU last night, and I think Eli getting hot from the field has been a major factor, he killed a few JMU runs, especially that corner 3 when JMU cut it to 50-44. Either JWF or Eli is going to get ya, and when both are on like last night, the floodgates open.

I've been following the team 20+ years now, and Hofstra has been lucky to see a lot of good guards come through the program. One of the best parts about Hofstra Hoops is watching a 4 year player develop their game, and our top guards always make a big leap senior year. Speedy significantly improved the jumper his senior year, Stokes got better from the FT line, and developed a bit of a mid-range game. Jenkins got better all over, but that mid-range jumper was deadly.

JWF was already a great shooter coming into the season, but his court vision has really started to improve. The last few games he's been dropping absolute dimes, that could be an x-factor for us down the stretch.

[EvanJ]

I think we're still improving, but some of it is matchup based. Elon and W&M play a lot of halfcourt defense, they drop back after the shot, they didn't let us get in transition often. Both teams were also bombing 3 balls, Elon especially. I thought we had one good half against each team, the 1st at W&M, the 2nd at Elon. That's what makes Northeastern a tough test for us, they play similarly to W&M and Elon.

Those are the three CAA teams with the most threes attempted per game. Elon ranks 21st of 353 teams in threes attempted per game.

Jenkins shot better and improved his assists, turnovers, and fouls from his junior to his senior season.

Claxton attempted 85 percent more shots per game as a senior than as a junior. As a junior, he hardly shot threes, and made 6. As a senior, he made 51. He averaged a whopping 3.3 steals in a senior, which is more than any Division I player is averaging this season.

Stokes had some statistics get better and some statistics get worse from his junior to his senior season. He shot field goals and threes a little better as a junior. He didn't have a bad senior season, but he didn't have the improvement Jenkins, Claxton, and JWF had.

[Wags]

The biggest thing to note under this Different Team thread...

DE-fense! (clap-clap) DE-fense!

Allowed over 73 pts in regulation:
Last year - 20 times
This year - 2 times

Allowed over 80 pts in regulation:
Last year - 15 times
This year - 1 time

Obviously, that's not great defense to simply hold teams under 74 or 81, but you can see the vast differences and just how much stress it put on them offensively trying to win while allowing over 73 or 80 so many times. With their offense, it's been the difference between merely a fairly good season last year and what is so far, an historically good one.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Thank you Jacquil Taylor.

[Wags]

Thank you Jacquil Taylor.

And...?

Certainly Taylor, but not just him. Also Buie, Eli, Coburn, JWF and even some coaching.

[daHUPride]

Thank you Jacquil Taylor.

And...?

Certainly Taylor, but not just him. Also Buie, Eli, Coburn, JWF and even some coaching.

It is a TEAM - BUT if you took away one guy from this team who'd have the biggest impact over a number of games - Id be hard pressed to say JT is at the very top of that list - we are thin at big and he has given us exactly what the doctor ordered as an addition to what we already had - but lets all agree it isn't one guy or one coach this really s a TEAM.

[Flying Dutchmen]

Thank you Jacquil Taylor.

And...?

Certainly Taylor, but not just him. Also Buie, Eli, Coburn, JWF and even some coaching.

If we're being honest, we're not much better of a defensive team. A lot of our success has come from the ineptitude of the offenses we have played. The average offensive efficiency of our opponents is down 5 points/100 possessions from last year. Our pace is also nearly 2 possessions per game slower, which is another reason we've held more teams in the 70's.

I think where we have noticeably improved though is in our ability to keep our opponents off of the FT line, and protecting the rim.

[stuball888]

A lot of it is pace of the game. One thing we have done is control the pace of the game which favors us. The other keeping teams off the free throw line ii huge. They score points with the clock not running. Still the numbers don't lie. keep teams under 75 and we have a good chance of winning. Also the fact we can stave off rallies late in the game with clutch free throw shooting in the last 2 minutes.

[Wags]

A lot of it is pace of the game. One thing we have done is control the pace of the game which favors us. The other keeping teams off the free throw line ii huge. They score points with the clock not running. Still the numbers don't lie. keep teams under 75 and we have a good chance of winning. Also the fact we can stave off rallies late in the game with clutch free throw shooting in the last 2 minutes.

Not a LOT, only SOME of it is pace - Hofstra ranked 158th (71.3) in pace last year, 238th this year (70.7), so they're definitely playing a bit slower offensively (so sure, less possessions for HU, less for opponents, lower scores for both teams).

But that vast majority of it is a commitment to better defense across the board, and the numbers bear it out:

Last year, they were 5th in the CAA in 3pt% defense (36.3%) and were 9th in the CAA in overall FG% allowed (47.7%).

They rank 2nd in the CAA this year in 3pt% defense (32.7% - a 3.6% improvement) and are 3rd in the CAA in overall FG% allowed (43.6% - a 4.1% improvement). Those 3.6% and 4.1% improvements win games.

I know people love scoring, it's exciting, etc. But this difference is exactly what I was cautioning with all last season, even while they won three in a row in December, by scores of 85-84, 88-82 and 84-81 (great that they won, but where's the D?).

This win streak is far more exciting than simply scoring and not caring if you get scored upon. The improved defense is the primary reason. And forget the numbers, you can SEE and HEAR it on the floor, from the defensive execution and communication to the different looks on their faces and the better body language in terms of simply looking like they are now taking PRIDE in stopping their opponents as much as they can.

[stuball888]

Touché John well said

[Flying Dutchmen]

Not a LOT, only SOME of it is pace - Hofstra ranked 158th (71.3) in pace last year, 238th this year (70.7), so they're definitely playing a bit slower offensively (so sure, less possessions for HU, less for opponents, lower scores for both teams).

But that vast majority of it is a commitment to better defense across the board, and the numbers bear it out:

Last year, they were 5th in the CAA in 3pt% defense (36.3%) and were 9th in the CAA in overall FG% allowed (47.7%).

They rank 2nd in the CAA this year in 3pt% defense (32.7% - a 3.6% improvement) and are 3rd in the CAA in overall FG% allowed (43.6% - a 4.1% improvement). Those 3.6% and 4.1% improvements win games.

I know people love scoring, it's exciting, etc. But this difference is exactly what I was cautioning with all last season, even while they won three in a row in December, by scores of 85-54, 88-82 and 84-81 (great that they won, but where's the D?).

This win streak is far more exciting than simply scoring and not caring if you get scored upon. The improved defense is the primary reason. And forget the numbers, you can SEE and HEAR it on the floor, from the defensive execution and communication to the different looks on their faces and the better body language in terms of simply looking like they are now taking PRIDE in stopping their opponents as much as they can.

Listen, I'm all for that storyline, but it's not really true.

Now, let me preface that by saying I think Losing Rok and Sabety, and getting Taylor has made us a better defensive team. Coburn as well.

The reality is we went from a godawful defensive team with Rok stinking up the joint, with no help inside, to a mediocre defensive team, where Taylor holds his own, allowing the rest of our defenders to get more aggressive. I think with Coburn in the lineup, the spacing and overall athleticism has gotten better, which has shut down some of the dribble-drive that killed us the previous two years. Taylor's presence has been the main reason we're better though. He blocks shots, he moves well, he has good positioning, he's a smart player. Teams have gotten less out of just taking it to the rack all day, like they did in '17 and '18.

We're also playing some terrible teams though. This is Hofstra's worst SOS in at least 20 years. The CAA is at it's lowest point in history. The guard play we have gone up against this year in conference has been a disgrace, and that plays right into our hands, with our steal rate jumping significantly this year. Ultimately, I don't think we get the winning streak against some of the other schedules we've faced in the last 5 years though, just because many of the teams we've faced can't get out of their own way offensively.

It sounds like I'm crapping on the team, but my real point is we're much improved this year because our offense has been off the charts.

We are ridiculously efficient. It's rare to have a superstar like JWF be such an unselfish player. We've gone from 298th to 2nd in FT shooting percentage. We shoot the ball well, we don't turn it over. We're starting to improve against zone defenses. Our offense has been so good, especially since Pemberton has turned it up, it's been hiding our mediocre defensive play.

But mediocre might be enough this year to get it done with our elite offense. It's very reminiscent of the '16 defense that did a great job not giving up free throws, and forced enough turnovers to be effective.

[Pride97]

I have to disagree. While I’m not going to say we have been a great or even very good defense, I believe we are much improved. Granted we were staring from a very low point.

I’m not going to sit and say that the stats would be starkly different, but I agree with Wags. I’m at most home games and I can see the difference. They are moving better and in better position than they have been in the past. Teams used to be able to penetrate with ease any time they wanted That isn’t the case this year.

The biggest difference for me though is the effort and energy which to me is a big part of playing defense. It is night and day from what I have watched the past few seasons. They communicate well as well - can hear them talking to each other much more.


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[HofstraHockey]

I think the lack of penetration comes from a different mindset by Hofstra's opponents- the fact is there is a Big 10 center down low. They aren't going to attack that. Which means they have to play more on the outside. Which means they don't have the high percentage shots anymore. And when your D doesn't have to help down low as much anymore, they can focus on containing the perimeter and contesting shots.

Now I'm not saying JT is Shaq down low or anything. But we are used to seeing the team attacked a certain way. It's not there anymore. And without the bigs to compete with what Hof has, they are able to play passable defense.

But honestly- do we think the D looks this good if Dwyer and Schutte are getting the minutes there?

[Wags]

I’m not going to sit and say that the stats would be starkly different, but I agree with Wags. I’m at most home games and I can see the difference. They are moving better and in better position than they have been in the past. Teams used to be able to penetrate with ease any time they wanted That isn’t the case this year.

The biggest difference for me though is the effort and energy which to me is a big part of playing defense. It is night and day from what I have watched the past few seasons. They communicate well as well - can hear them talking to each other much more.

Agree that the competition is easier than it had been, and that's some of it. And I'm not saying the defense is outstanding by any stetch. But it's pretty decent and vastly improved over last year. Maryland is good, VCU is good. Marshall is decent. They wouldn't have been in those games at all with the lack of D they played last year.

It's partly Taylor, but it's everyone as a unit, starting with the guards doing a better job of helping him out than they did with playing matador D for Gustys and other guys in the back to get in trouble.

The energy, the effort and the communication are dramatically better. If you can't see and hear the overall difference, you're not watching and listening and/or didn't watch and listen last year.

[EvanJ]

We're also playing some terrible teams though. This is Hofstra's worst SOS in at least 20 years. The CAA is at it's lowest point in history.

The CAA is worse than usual, but it's 18th in the Conference RPI, which is better than 2012-2013 and 2014-2015. Our SOS in the RPI is 224th compared to 286th in 2014-2015. Our SOS in the Sagarin is worse than in 2014-2015. In 2012-2013, James Madison won the CAA Tournament and had to play in the First Four as a 16 seed before getting a chance to play a 1.

In 2009-2010, Washington and Kanacevic helped us block 6.42 shots, which was 8th in Division I. This season we're allowing 1.1 more points than then, but given that the NCAA average points per game was up 4.5 from 2009-2010 to 2017-2018, I think our points per game compared to average is better this season. In 2009-2010, we committed the 11th most total fouls. ESPN has total fouls but not fouls per game. This season we're blocking 3.09 shots with much fewer fouls.

[Flying Dutchmen]

We're also playing some terrible teams though. This is Hofstra's worst SOS in at least 20 years. The CAA is at it's lowest point in history.

The CAA is worse than usual, but it's 18th in the Conference RPI, which is better than 2012-2013 and 2014-2015. Our SOS in the RPI is 224th compared to 286th in 2014-2015. Our SOS in the Sagarin is worse than in 2014-2015. In 2012-2013, James Madison won the CAA Tournament and had to play in the First Four as a 16 seed before getting a chance to play a 1.

We're 20th in the Pomeroy, trending to 23rd, which would be worst in CAA history by a considerable margin. Our SOS in the Pomeroy is 335th, worst since at least 2002.

[Wags]

We're also playing some terrible teams though. This is Hofstra's worst SOS in at least 20 years. The CAA is at it's lowest point in history.

The CAA is worse than usual, but it's 18th in the Conference RPI, which is better than 2012-2013 and 2014-2015. Our SOS in the RPI is 224th compared to 286th in 2014-2015. Our SOS in the Sagarin is worse than in 2014-2015. In 2012-2013, James Madison won the CAA Tournament and had to play in the First Four as a 16 seed before getting a chance to play a 1.

We're 20th in the Pomeroy, trending to 23rd, which would be worst in CAA history by a considerable margin. Our SOS in the Pomeroy is 335th, worst since at least 2002.

That's only one tool.

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html and https://www.cbssports.com/collegebasket ... nkings/sos have the CAA RPI and Hofstra's schedule where Evan listed them (18th and 224th), with the CAA SOS ranked at 17th.

Not sure what the point is here. Yes, even at 224 (since that's still not so great vs. the metric you're using) there is some reason for a bit of doubt or skepticism. But I also don't see any other teams in the nation with easier schedules or in easier leagues winning 16 straight. Bottom line, the team is clearly playing significantly better defense and much better overall than last year and at any time under the current regime, and better overall than in many years in prior regimes. Only some of that is attributable to the quality of the competition, but it's largely not. This is a legit good basketball team this year (so far).

[Flying Dutchmen]

I don't really know why I'm arguing, I don't really disagree, probably just the main water line bursting to my house meaning no running water or a shower today getting to my head.

But my point is I've also watched every game but the Monmouth one, and I still think our defense is not particularly good, despite the infusion of JT and Coburn. The reason it hasn't been exploited is because we've faced an all-time bad schedule. Adding JT and TC have made us good enough defensively to win the title though, that's becoming clearer every game.

Ultimately, I think the real reason we're a different team this year is because our offense might be the best in school history. Again, we've played against crappy competition, so maybe it's having the same effect on the offense as it is the defense. I guess what I'm also getting at is, as much as I also hate seeing us play in shootouts, I think we're going to end up in one on Saturday, one down in Charleston, and one or two in the CAAT. But I think this year we're good enough to win that way.

[Wags]

I don't really know why I'm arguing, I don't really disagree, probably just the main water line bursting to my house meaning no running water or a shower today getting to my head.

But my point is I've also watched every game but the Monmouth one, and I still think our defense is not particularly good, despite the infusion of JT and Coburn. The reason it hasn't been exploited is because we've faced an all-time bad schedule. Adding JT and TC have made us good enough defensively to win the title though, that's becoming clearer every game.

Ultimately, I think the real reason we're a different team this year is because our offense might be the best in school history. Again, we've played against crappy competition, so maybe it's having the same effect on the offense as it is the defense. I guess what I'm also getting at is, as much as I also hate seeing us play in shootouts, I think we're going to end up in one on Saturday, one down in Charleston, and one or two in the CAAT. But I think this year we're good enough to win that way.

Could just be cautious optimism, which given the team's past history in the CAA tournament and even with an at-large snub, is certainly understandable! Just have a feeling that this year is different. I'll let you know in March.