MBB Game 1 - San Jose State, 11/6/19, 7 PM

[stuball888]

This team was 4-27 last year they may be tall but they dont shoot the ball well and turn it over a lot thet shoot free throws at 65 percent as a team while they are tall they are slow We need to push the ball and score in the 80s or better This team avg 65 points a game last year

[EvanJ]

This team was 4-27 last year they may be tall but they dont shoot the ball well and turn it over a lot thet shoot free throws at 65 percent as a team while they are tall they are slow We need to push the ball and score in the 80s or better This team avg 65 points a game last year

They shot two-pointers .448, and only averaged 1.7 blocks, so they were bad at things that you would expect tall teams to be good at. https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... -point-pct only includes games between two Division I teams, and their .441 percentage shooting two-pointers was 11th-worst of 353 teams.

https://www.vividseats.com/sports/hofst ... 6314&qty=2 is selling Section 201 tickets for $48. What's the highest resale price you've heard of for regular season to any sport on campus? If you choose 2 tickets, they have a range of $39 to $48 for most games. No tickets are below $39. The William & Mary game has a highest price of $57.

[Pride97]

I unfortunately have to go out of town for work and won’t be able to attend tomorrow nights game. I know there were a few discussions on how to stream the games. Was there a consensus on what the best way to do this is? Any help would be greatly appreciated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[EvanJ]

The only way to watch legally is to pay for FloSports. It costs $12.50 for one month or $7.95 for one month if you pay for one year. It's a CAA package that includes every non-televised Men's Basketball game at a CAA team. For other sports it's a combination of games that are free to watch online and games that require FloSports. Games can be watched on demand, although the length of video will occasionally be a hint. If a Men's Basketball game you're starting to watch after it is over ever has a 3 hour video, it went many overtimes and/or had an unusual delay. If you pay now, you can watch the Women's Soccer CAA Final and Men's Soccer CAA Tournament.

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-baske ... rojections gives us a 94.5 percent chance at winning, which is our highest other than 99.5 percent against New York Tech.

[Wags]

Hofstra is a 19-point favorite tomorrow night.

[EvanJ]

The overall part of last season's Sagarin says Hofstra by 21.61. The Mountain West was better in the Sagarin than the NET and RPI, and the CAA was worse in the Sagarin than the NET and RPI, so if you believe the NET and/or RPI are better at measuring conferences (which affects SOS), that would expect Hofstra to win by more than 21.61. The Sagarin provides a home court advantage. KenPom does not provide a home court advantage unless it's on pages you have to pay for, and they take Hofstra by 18.91 without home court advantage. KenPom is combining preseason expectations with yesterday's games. Unless future SOS is included, yesterday's games should not have changed KenPom for teams who didn't play.

[Hofstra]

EvanJ are you suggesting that if you are able to make a LEGAL wager on Hofstra, tonight is the night to do it?

Appreciate all the insight. You are a huge asset to the boards.

[EvanJ]

I don't bet other than $10 per year on the NCAA Tournament, but if you compare the Sagarin and KenPom to the line then it will be among the best nights to bet on Hofstra. Winning by 5 or 10 would be worrisome.

[triplec2195]

Just curious when it was that we were a 20 point favorite? Has it ever happened against a D-1 school??

[Flying Dutchmen]

I think the line is absurd, we always have bad home opener performances, and this is probably the most talented team we've played in a home opener with Joe.

[EvanJ]

Just curious when it was that we were a 20 point favorite? Has it ever happened against a D-1 school??

One website used to have odds for many years, but it doesn't exist anymore. https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/gamelog ... 15377/2019 has odds for the last four seasons. We were favored by at least 15 four times last season, but not in any of the three seasons before. I'm surprised that the 2015-2016 regular season champions weren't favored in a CAA game by more than 11.5. Here are the times we were favored by at least 15 in reverse chronological order:

2/7/2019 vs. Elon: 18, won 102-61 to cover
12/5/2018 vs. Monmouth: 15, won 75-73 but did not cover
11/14/2018 vs. North Carolina A&T: 15, won 92-72 to cover
11/9/2018 vs. Mount St. Mary's: 15, won 79-61 to cover

These games in reverse chronological order did not have lines:

12/22/2018 vs. Rosemont
12/12/2017 at Stony Brook
11/30/2017 vs. Molloy
11/13/2017 vs. Kennesaw State
11/10/2017 vs. Army
12/13/2016 vs. Stony Brook
11/25/2016 vs. Medaille
11/15/2016 at Sacred Heart
11/11/2016 vs. Coppin State
12/28/2015 vs. Sacred Heart
12/20/2015 at Stony Brook
11/16/2015 vs. Molloy

[Wags]

I think the line is absurd, we always have bad home opener performances, and this is probably the most talented team we've played in a home opener with Joe.

Sometimes, yes, but not always - Hofstra won home openers by 18 last year and eight years ago, and by 33 five years ago.

As for how much talent San Jose State has, the big spread is as much due to the Spartans' lack of talent as it is Vegas being extremely high on Hofstra. This should be an easy game. San Jose State is coming off consecutive 4-26 and 4-27 seasons and is picked last in the 11-team Mountain West this year.

[Polito]

Yeah, I was gonna say the same Wags, I think HU has actually opened the season decently well in years past. A lot of that is because the first game opponents have been pretty awful, but HU has looked good coming out of the gate under JM most of the time. It's the end of the season that has been the challenge

I'm not sure how great of an opening opponent this really is... certainly a better conf than in years past from the MWC. 20pts first game of the year does seem big considering HU has a number of unanswered questions as well and replacing a superstar. But I think they show up big tonight with a solid game 1 W.

SJS will be hard to read going into this, a number of new players, a few returnees off a really bad yr last yr, but still some foundational pieces. 3rd yr coach. Their strength is in the post, so perhaps we learn a lot about Kante tonight.

They do have good size, but the guard ranks are a bit younger, so our upper classmen guards need to, and should, go off. I'm hoping for Kante to battle their bigs with some physicality, and Buie, Ray, Pemba, and Coburn to light them up with accuracy, athleticism, and speed.

Deeper 3 this year, but I don't think that's going to bother most players - these young guys seem to hit from NBA range with ease nowadays lol.

LET'S GOOOOOO HU! It's opening game day baby!!

[EvanJ]

https://www.flohoops.com/live/16714-201 ... basketball has video for subscribers.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=266449 has statistics. We are starting Coburn, Buie, Pemberton, Ray, and Kante. San Jose State is starting Brae Ivey (guard), Seneca Knight (guard), Christian Anigwe (forward), Eduardo Lane (forward), and Craig LeCesne (forward). The statistics often display each player's year, but they don't display that now. Here are career statistics for SJSU's starters:

Ivey: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... vey-1.html
Knight: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... ght-1.html
Anigwe: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... gwe-1.html
Lane: No page
LeCesne: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/pl ... sne-1.html

Jerry Beach has not written anything.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/statmonitr/?id=285638 has statistics for Charlotte at James Madison, which starts at 7:30 P.M. and is the only other CAA game today.

Edit: The statistics has a new section that has each team's season statistics. It's useless tonight, but for future games I won't need separate windows for Hofstra's season statistics and the opponent's season statistics. You may not like having to pay for FloSports or not watch, but whether you watch or not, the CAA uses the best in-game statistics format IMO.

Edit: http://defiantlydutch.blogspot.com/2019 ... state.html is Jerry Beach's "I'll Be Quirky: San Jose State."

[Wags]

A nice new blue wall behind the benches:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 4665449472

And an NIT banner to be unveiled before the anthem tonight:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 3936247809

[EvanJ]

"I'll Be Quirky: San Jose State" that I linked to says KenPom expects us to win 84-68. It says we are favored by 20, but ESPN and Vegas Insider say 18. This is the seventh consecutive season we opened at home, and that includes our biggest opening margin of victory over a Division I team, which was 94-61 over Jacksonville in 2014-2015. It's the earliest date for our opener, and that could be true for many teams.

[Wags]

A nice new blue wall behind the benches:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 4665449472

And an NIT banner to be unveiled before the anthem tonight:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 3936247809

Some video of the banner unveiling:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 2090940416

[cactus]

Miranda checked in before Silverio... guess he is not redshirting.

However he is still wearing #3?????

I'm sorry but that is bullshit

[Wags]

Miranda checked in before Silverio... guess he is not redshirting.

However he is still wearing #3?????

I'm sorry but that is bullshit

At some point, that'll stop and JWF will have it retired, but I guess for now, they're rolling with it.

[Wags]

A nice new blue wall behind the benches:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 4665449472

And an NIT banner to be unveiled before the anthem tonight:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 3936247809

Some video of the banner unveiling:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 2090940416

Here's a pic of the first tip of the season:
https://twitter.com/JonathanJWagner/sta ... 8424419329