CAA Men's Basketball in February 2022 Including Scenarios

[Wags]

Of course, Elon paid Hofstra back tonight, 81-55.
Northeastern embarrassed W&M, 62-28.
UNCW won at Drexel, 69-63.
Charleston won at Delaware, 99-96, despite allowing 64 second-half points.

So that leaves us with this heading into Saturday (listing the places after Elon as the seeds they would be with JMU banned):

1) UNCW 14-3 (can only finish 1st or 2nd)
2) Towson 13-3 (can only finish 1st or 2nd)
3) Hofstra 11-5 (can only finish 3rd or 4th)
4) Delaware 10-6
5) Drexel 9-8
6) Charleston 8-8
7) Elon 6-11
JMU 6-11
8) William & Mary 4-13
9) Northeastern 2-15

If Towson finishes 2nd, it might be to Hofstra's advantage to slip from 3rd to 4th, to avoid Towson until the finals. Facing UNCW in a 1/4 semis game seems a much better matchup for them than facing Towson in a 2/3 semis game.

The problem with that is, if after getting routed by Elon, Hofstra also loses its last two and falls to 4 with Delaware winning out and passing them, that wouldn't inspire a lot of confidence at all going to D.C.

Better to just beat W&M, pay them back and get back on track after tonight, and clinch the 3 seed. And then beat Charleston in case they finish 6th - don't give them confidence by having them beat you on your own floor before you (might) play them in a 3/6 quarterfinal game. And then, if it's Towson in a 2/3 semis game, so be it.

So, rather than slipping to 4 and hoping UNCW is the 1, and facing UNCW in a 1/4 game, the best thing to root for now is: Towson overtakes UNCW for the 1 seed, Hofstra clinches the 3 by winning out in the last two, faces UNCW in a 2/3 game, and avoids Towson until the finals.

[HofstraMathew]

Seems likely Towson will be the #1 seed since I believe they have the tiebreaker. So either a win today & Monday by Towson or a UNCW loss today & 1 win by Towson clinches the 1 seed for Towson.

[Wags]

Seems likely Towson will be the #1 seed since I believe they have the tiebreaker. So either a win today & Monday by Towson or a UNCW loss today & 1 win by Towson clinches the 1 seed for Towson.

Remember, Towson is already trailing Delaware by nine with under 19 minutes left when they resume on Monday, so a 1 seed isn't that likely for them. They have work to do. They are in good shape for any tiebreakers with UNCW though (at 15-3 or 14-4).

[HofstraMathew]

Let’s see if that Monday game even matters for the 1 seed.

[EvanJ]

UNCW 15-3
Towson 14-3
Hofstra 12-5
Delaware 10-7
Drexel 10-8
Charleston 8-9
Elon 7-11
JMU 6-12
W&M 4-14
Northeastern 2-16

The known seeds are us 3, Charleston 6, Elon 7, W&M 8, and Northeastern 9, so we will play Charleston twice in a row. If Towson beats Delaware, Towson will get the 1 seed. They split with UNCW, and Towson had a better record against us 2-0 to 1-1. In that case, Drexel would get the 4. Drexel split with Delaware, and Delaware losing would make them 0-4 against UNCW and Towson, while Drexel beat Towson. If Delaware beats Towson, UNCW is 1, Towson is 2, Delaware is 4, Drexel is 5, and there aren't any ties. It doesn't matter who is 4 and who is 5, so the game is much more important to Towson than to Delaware. Delaware at Towson resumes at 6:00 P.M. and could end before we start, in which case we will play after all the seeds are clinched.

[Wags]

Let’s see if that Monday game even matters for the 1 seed.

The 1 seed now depends on it. UNCW is 15-3, Towson is 14-3. If Towson rallies to win on Monday, they'll be the 1 seed. If they don't, they'll be the 2 and UNCW the 1. Would be better for Hofstra if Towson wins. Let HU -- if they survive Charleston first (no easy task) -- meet UNCW rather than Towson in the semis if the seeds hold.

[Wags]

UNCW 15-3
Towson 14-3
Hofstra 12-5
Delaware 10-7
Drexel 10-8
Charleston 8-9
Elon 7-11
JMU 6-12
W&M 4-14
Northeastern 2-16

It doesn't matter who is 4 and who is 5, so the game is much more important to Towson than to Delaware.

I think it matters to Delaware in that A) they don't want to head into the tourney off a loss, even if it's a kind of partial game, blowing a second-half lead and B) they'll want to send a message to one of the top two teams before the tourney. For similar reasons, I think it'll matter to Charleston and Hofstra. HU doesn't want to give Charleston any confidence and Hofstra wants to win going into the tourney (spoke to Parotta about this after the game today and he said it's important for Hofstra to get a second straight win and feel good going into the tourney even though the game on Monday night technically doesn't matter).

All that said, I do agree with you that Towson should be more motivated than Delaware.

[HofstraMathew]

Let’s see if that Monday game even matters for the 1 seed.

The 1 seed now depends on it. UNCW is 15-3, Towson is 14-3. If Towson rallies to win on Monday, they'll be the 1 seed. If they don't, they'll be the 2 and UNCW the 1. Would be better for Hofstra if Towson wins. Let HU -- if they survive Charleston first (no easy task) -- meet UNCW rather than Towson in the semis if the seeds hold.

Yep you were right. I really thought Delaware was going to win yesterday. Luckily I didn't put any money on it; lol.

[Wags]

Let’s see if that Monday game even matters for the 1 seed.

The 1 seed now depends on it. UNCW is 15-3, Towson is 14-3. If Towson rallies to win on Monday, they'll be the 1 seed. If they don't, they'll be the 2 and UNCW the 1. Would be better for Hofstra if Towson wins. Let HU -- if they survive Charleston first (no easy task) -- meet UNCW rather than Towson in the semis if the seeds hold.

Yep you were right. I really thought Delaware was going to win yesterday. Luckily I didn't put any money on it; lol.

I would have thought the same with Delaware at home, but after stumbling following the 9-0 start in CAA play, UNCW closed winning five of six (the only loss, the blowout one to Towson at home). So maybe the Seahawks have righted themselves again.

Monday before the now-meaningless HU-CofC game is going to be fascinating. Does Delaware, with the only thing at stake for them being the uniform the Hens will wear when they play Drexel in the quarterfinals, play hard since they're only going to Towson to protect a nine-point lead with a bit over 18 minutes left rather than trying to win a full game from scratch? Or do they not care and does Towson make a huge push with less than a half to go, to try for the 1 seed? A really crazy scenario to end the season to determine four of the top fives seeds in the conference. And even stranger in this era, it has nothing to do with Covid, but rather, unsafe floor conditions.

I think HU should be rooting for Towson to win that game. If seeds hold, a Charleston/UNCW path seems to be the easiest to get to the finals.

[Jojogunne]

So it looks like we'll be playing our good friends from Elon in the first round?

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

[Wags]

So it looks like we'll be playing our good friends from Elon in the first round?

https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?path=mbball

First Round is the 8/9 game between William & Mary and Northeastern, at 5:00 pm.

Hofstra (3 seed) is playing Charleston (6 seed) in the last quarterfinal game, at 8:30 pm on Sunday.

The first quarterfinal, at noon, will be the W&M/NU winner against UNCW or Towson (TBD, possibly before HU & CofC tip off tomorrow).
The second quarterfinal, at 2:30 pm, will be Drexel vs. Delaware (4 and 5 seeds for those two, TBD).
The third quarterfinal, at 6:00 pm, will be Elon (7 seed) vs. UNCW or Towson (TBD).

[Wags]

14-0 Towson run, 17-2 since resuming play tonight. Tigers making a strong push for the 1 seed.

46-40, Towson, with 14:10 left.

[Wags]

Towson wins, 69-57.

The tournament is set.

Sat 3/5:
(8) W&M vs (9) Northeastern, 5:00 pm

Sun 3/6:
W&M/Northeastern vs. (1) Towson, 12:00 pm
(4) Drexel vs. (5) Delaware, 2:30 pm
(2) UNCW vs. (7) Elon, 6:00 pm
(3) Hofstra vs. (6) Charleston, 8:30 pm

[Wags]

Keep in mind, Northeastern did beat Towson this year and just recently crushed W&M. So, ya never know in the first quarterfinal game.