NCAA projected Tourney Bracket

[triplec2195]

Yesterday on CBS I was watching the top 16 teams predicted for the upcoming NCAA tourney and just as an fyi COC who had been in first place AT THE TIME OF THE PROGRAM was predicted to represent the CAA. They predicted all the brackets.COC were placed in the mid-west regional as a 15 seed playing obviously the second seed who they had as Dayton. This prediction doesn't bode well apparently for whoever wins the CAA this year. Thoughts????

[EvanJ]

Every site has predicted the CAA winner to get a 14 or worse. Going by the Conference NET, the CAA is 17th, so there are 15 worse conferences. Including six 16 seeds with the two First Four games for 16 seeds, there are 14 teams seeded 14 or worse. The CAA's problem is that it doesn't have a team stand out. Of the 15 worse conferences, 11 have at least one team with a better NET than us. Parity makes the regular season exciting, but it's bad for the CAA's NCAA Tournament seed. The good news is that not all regular season champions win their tournaments. New Mexico State, Vermont, Liberty, and Stephen F. Austin all will get a better seed than us if they make the NCAA Tournament, but every other team in those conferences would get a worse seed than us with the possible exception of Stony Brook. We would probably get a better seed than Stony Brook, but they won at Vermont, and if they win hosting Vermont and at Vermont in the AE Final, they would have a chance at a better seed than us or the same seed. Fans of teams in one bid conferences should root for upsets in the other one bid conferences.

ESPN had Charleston as a 14 before yesterday, so we will be 14 or 15 in ESPN's next bracket.

[EvanJ]

ESPN hasn't made another bracket yet. CBS Sports and NBC Sports both have us as a 15 playing Maryland. I got to hear from a girl who saw the destruction that was how people celebrated Maryland's championship in 2002.

[The Shadow]

Latest Bracket (dated 2-11) projection by ESPN has HU as a #14 seed traveling to Tampa vs #3 seed Florida State in the Midwest Bracket.

[EvanJ]

That would be horrible because those are my two favorite teams.

[hualum]

can we lock this thread. . . EVERY time this discussion starts. . . . LITERALLY EVERY TIME

[Flying Dutchmen]

can we lock this thread. . . EVERY time this discussion starts. . . . LITERALLY EVERY TIME

Ha, it's like dreaming about winning the Powerball.

[The Shadow]

To hualum, Maybe you are correct. I think we all want HU to finally win the CAAT and be part of the NCAAT. I know we have been close in the past few seasons and it is nice to speculate on just what a great and memorable March 2020 could become. Let's start with Charleston Thursday evening on CBS Sports Network. HU can control its CAAT seed by just continuing the present win streak.

[triplec2195]

Not particularly a superstitious person and if we continue to play the way we have been playing there's no reason we can't finally win this. They definitely need to walk the walk with playing 40 minutes of every game. That's what will get us to the dance and I'll reiterate that IMO we're the best team here 1-5.

[Polito]

Straight torture till it happens

Attention is fantastic for exposure, but it sucks when you choke! This program really just needs to come through.

[Wags]

Hofstra vs. Seton Hall in Albany!

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

[EvanJ]

If that happened, 12 seed Yale, 13 seed Colgate, and 14 seed us would all have short travel to Albany.

[triplec2195]

If that happened, 12 seed Yale, 13 seed Colgate, and 14 seed us would all have short travel to Albany.

I won't spend too much time trying to express my displeasure with this seeding especially Colgate who's in a weaker conference the Patriot league ranked 19th to our 16 and who in a two week period lost twice to powerhouse Lafayette. They also lost to respectable teams like Syracuse, Clemson and a blowout loss to Auburn. They also lost to powerhouse Niagara. I know someone will bring up the NCAA bible called the NET which has Yale as # 57 and Colgate as #113 us as #126. I think pulling names out of a hat could maybe be as objective as the NET. It's an attempt in futility to try and rationalize this system and I don't think I will ever buy into the reasoning behind this arbitrary ranking system. I would love to know what our NET would be if we were undefeated this year for sure we have had some bad loses by a decent number of points but we have played quite well recently and for most of the year.

[Mikey77]

Very dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch. An untimely loss or two and we could be looking at the CBI or worse.

[triplec2195]

Very dangerous to count your chickens before they hatch. An untimely loss or two and we could be looking at the CBI or worse.

True but u can't help but feel optimistic about our chances this year we have a more balanced TEAM this year and we could seal the deal. We have won the battle a few times but now its time to win the WAR!!

[EvanJ]

If that happened, 12 seed Yale, 13 seed Colgate, and 14 seed us would all have short travel to Albany.

I won't spend too much time trying to express my displeasure with this seeding especially Colgate who's in a weaker conference the Patriot league ranked 19th to our 16 and who in a two week period lost twice to powerhouse Lafayette. They also lost to respectable teams like Syracuse, Clemson and a blowout loss to Auburn. They also lost to powerhouse Niagara. I know someone will bring up the NCAA bible called the NET which has Yale as # 57 and Colgate as #113 us as #126. I think pulling names out of a hat could maybe be as objective as the NET. It's an attempt in futility to try and rationalize this system and I don't think I will ever buy into the reasoning behind this arbitrary ranking system. I would love to know what our NET would be if we were undefeated this year for sure we have had some bad loses by a decent number of points but we have played quite well recently and for most of the year.

The what if Team X went undefeated is only possible for the RPI. Our RPI is 102nd, and if we were undefeated with the same SOS, we would be 27th. I thought about using how much higher our RPI would be if we were undefeated and applying it to the NET, but I can't because the NET doesn't provide values, and it doesn't have to be on a 0 to 1 scale like the RPI is. The Sagarin has two and three-digit numbers, and KenPom has each team plus or minus points compared to average. For any rankings that include the score, "undefeated" isn't specific enough. Even if you made up scores, it wouldn't be sufficient to calculate where a team would be because the formulas are not available. It's like if a student is rejected by a college and guesses if he or she would have gotten in with an SAT score 50 points higher. Students don't know exactly much weight the school gives to the SAT, and it could vary within one school depending on which employee(s) evaluated the application. Averages for schools are known, but it's impossible to know the average SAT (or anything else) of all the students who applied to the same college(s) as you. The acceptance rate matters, and College A could have a higher average SAT score among applicants than College B while College B has a higher average SAT score among accepted students.

Here are rankings by how many spots above us Yale is:

KenPom: 82
NET: 73
ESPN's BPI: 66
Sagarin Overall: 47
Sagarin Golden_Mean: 45
RPI: 44
Seven Overtimes: 43
Sagarin Predictor: 41
Sagarin Recent: 39

Therefore you won't be able to convince may people that we're better than Yale. We're close to Colgate, but the Sagarin Predictor is the only one of those that thinks we're better. Comparing us to Colgate, we deserve the same seed or 1 seed worse, and without looking at every low seed in ESPN's bracket I can't pick which would be more fair. Giving us a 14 seed isn't unreasonably low.

The Selection Committee uses team sheets that include rankings from several formulas. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/ ... am=Hofstra has a left column that says:

KPI 0
SOR 111
BPI 115
POM 125
SAG 110

KPI is the Ken Pauga Index, SOR is strength of record, and the last three I mentioned above comparing us to Yale. https://faktor.ddns.net/ has the KPI, and we're second in the CAA and 123rd. Delaware is 121st, and that's the only current ranking that thinks Delaware is the best team in the CAA. Values are positive and negative, but Delaware leads the CAA at +.071, so it's not points above or below average like in KenPom. KPI lists each team's best game and worst game. The best game by a CAA team is W&M's .65 for winning at us, and the second best is .58 for Delaware winning at us. Our best is .51 for winning at UCLA. The worst loss by a CAA team was -.84 for JMU hosting Coppin State. JMU, Charleston (hosting UNCW), and UNCW (hosting Elon) had worse losses than the best win by a CAA team going by absolute value. Our worst game was -.61 hosting San Jose State. Without seeing the formula, I'm assuming that the KPI ranks each game on a scale from -1 to 1. I checked to see if it's zero-sum like ELO ratings are, and it's not. Zero-sum means that if the winner got X, the loser would get -X. We got .51 for beating UCLA, while they got -.10 for losing to us. The KPI think UNC is better than us, UCLA lost to UNC in Las Vegas, and UCLA lost both games by 10, so I would expect UCLA to get a worse score against us than against UNC, but they got -.22 against UNC. http://www.kpisports.net/2013/11/07/kpi ... all-debut/ is from the start of 2013-2014 and says what the KPI uses. In addition to what I thought of, the KPI uses pace of game. I guessed that there was a scale of -1 to 1, but that's not true. In 2012-2013, two games had scores above 1 led by Pittsburgh's 73-45 win at Georgetown getting 1.06, and Florida State's 51-14 win at Clemson was the Football win with 1.29. Scores above 1 are kind of like scoring 120 points in regulation. It's possible, but it's hard enough that none of the top ten teams could do it.

[triplec2195]

If that happened, 12 seed Yale, 13 seed Colgate, and 14 seed us would all have short travel to Albany.

I won't spend too much time trying to express my displeasure with this seeding especially Colgate who's in a weaker conference the Patriot league ranked 19th to our 16 and who in a two week period lost twice to powerhouse Lafayette. They also lost to respectable teams like Syracuse, Clemson and a blowout loss to Auburn. They also lost to powerhouse Niagara. I know someone will bring up the NCAA bible called the NET which has Yale as # 57 and Colgate as #113 us as #126. I think pulling names out of a hat could maybe be as objective as the NET. It's an attempt in futility to try and rationalize this system and I don't think I will ever buy into the reasoning behind this arbitrary ranking system. I would love to know what our NET would be if we were undefeated this year for sure we have had some bad loses by a decent number of points but we have played quite well recently and for most of the year.

The what if Team X went undefeated is only possible for the RPI. Our RPI is 102nd, and if we were undefeated with the same SOS, we would be 27th. I thought about using how much higher our RPI would be if we were undefeated and applying it to the NET, but I can't because the NET doesn't provide values, and it doesn't have to be on a 0 to 1 scale like the RPI is. The Sagarin has two and three-digit numbers, and KenPom has each team plus or minus points compared to average. For any rankings that include the score, "undefeated" isn't specific enough. Even if you made up scores, it wouldn't be sufficient to calculate where a team would be because the formulas are not available. It's like if a student is rejected by a college and guesses if he or she would have gotten in with an SAT score 50 points higher. Students don't know exactly much weight the school gives to the SAT, and it could vary within one school depending on which employee(s) evaluated the application. Averages for schools are known, but it's impossible to know the average SAT (or anything else) of all the students who applied to the same college(s) as you. The acceptance rate matters, and College A could have a higher average SAT score among applicants than College B while College B has a higher average SAT score among accepted students.

Here are rankings by how many spots above us Yale is:

KenPom: 82
NET: 73
ESPN's BPI: 66
Sagarin Overall: 47
Sagarin Golden_Mean: 45
RPI: 44
Seven Overtimes: 43
Sagarin Predictor: 41
Sagarin Recent: 39

Therefore you won't be able to convince may people that we're better than Yale. We're close to Colgate, but the Sagarin Predictor is the only one of those that thinks we're better. Comparing us to Colgate, we deserve the same seed or 1 seed worse, and without looking at every low seed in ESPN's bracket I can't pick which would be more fair. Giving us a 14 seed isn't unreasonably low.

The Selection Committee uses team sheets that include rankings from several formulas. http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/ ... am=Hofstra has a left column that says:

KPI 0
SOR 111
BPI 115
POM 125
SAG 110

KPI is the Ken Pauga Index, SOR is strength of record, and the last three I mentioned above comparing us to Yale. https://faktor.ddns.net/ has the KPI, and we're second in the CAA and 123rd. Delaware is 121st, and that's the only current ranking that thinks Delaware is the best team in the CAA. Values are positive and negative, but Delaware leads the CAA at +.071, so it's not points above or below average like in KenPom. KPI lists each team's best game and worst game. The best game by a CAA team is W&M's .65 for winning at us, and the second best is .58 for Delaware winning at us. Our best is .51 for winning at UCLA. The worst loss by a CAA team was -.84 for JMU hosting Coppin State. JMU, Charleston (hosting UNCW), and UNCW (hosting Elon) had worse losses than the best win by a CAA team going by absolute value. Our worst game was -.61 hosting San Jose State. Without seeing the formula, I'm assuming that the KPI ranks each game on a scale from -1 to 1. I checked to see if it's zero-sum like ELO ratings are, and it's not. Zero-sum means that if the winner got X, the loser would get -X. We got .51 for beating UCLA, while they got -.10 for losing to us. The KPI think UNC is better than us, UCLA lost to UNC in Las Vegas, and UCLA lost both games by 10, so I would expect UCLA to get a worse score against us than against UNC, but they got -.22 against UNC. http://www.kpisports.net/2013/11/07/kpi ... all-debut/ is from the start of 2013-2014 and says what the KPI uses. In addition to what I thought of, the KPI uses pace of game. I guessed that there was a scale of -1 to 1, but that's not true. In 2012-2013, two games had scores above 1 led by Pittsburgh's 73-45 win at Georgetown getting 1.06, and Florida State's 51-14 win at Clemson was the Football win with 1.29. Scores above 1 are kind of like scoring 120 points in regulation. It's possible, but it's hard enough that none of the top ten teams could do it.

Evan thanks for your time here with all these numbers and formulas clearly over my math aptitude and to speak in a common language we all can relate to I think that Yale should get a higher seed do not think that Colgate should. If Colgate is a 13th seed then IMO we shouldn't be any lower then them. You keep referring to the RPI(RIP) which I thought was replaced by the NET. What gives with the RPI it just refuses to go away? What ever happened to the Bracket Buster games? I would have liked to have played Colgate and Yale to. Yale was tied for first place in the Ivy League with Princeton both 5-1 but just blew out Princeton by 24. Bad loss for Princeton.

[EvanJ]

If you think I posted a lot of rankings, https://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm has 58 rankings and 3 polls, and our average rank is 120.1. The last rating listed is by far our best in 64th, and http://aaronmangels.com/mangelscbb/ shows it moved us up to 58 today. Aaron Mangels has "angel" in his name, and he's an angel in terms of where he ranks us. Of 58 rankings, Colgate is better in 37, we're better in 20, and one lists us both in 102nd.

[Sctvman]

Hofstra currently a 14 playing Florida State in Tampa in mine.

https://carolinasportsthoughts.wordpress.com/

[Hof_Judge99]

We’re up to #15 in the mid major top 25. Not sure how much that means but this year we’ll be favored in every CAA tournament game. This is our chance, our year, our time!