2019 Women's Soccer

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EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

We lead 2-1 thanks to Miri Taylor. Delaware leads UNCW 2-1. Northeastern leads Elon 2-0. JMU leads Drexel 3-0. Towson and Charleston are still 1-1.

I found the RPI adjustment formula, and my previous decision to leave the adjustment the same when I added in the win at Towson was correct because the adjustment only comes from nonconference wins against the top 80 of the RPI or losses to the bottom 80 of the RPI. We have three nonconference wins against teams in the 41-80 range. These provide bonuses of .0020 for an away win, .0017 for a neutral win, and .0015 for a home win. We got .0020 for our win at Monmouth, .0015 for our win hosting Columbia, and .0020 for our win at Penn. Since Monmouth is 77th and Penn is 79th, if one or both of them falls out of the Top 80 we lose our adjustment. Through Sunday we were 15th, and taking out both of those adjustments would have dropped us to 20th. Columbia is in 61st, and this late in the season it is unlikely they will fall out of the Top 80. Of our six nonconference games not providing adjustments, none of them are close to the adjustment ranges, so our adjustment will remain the same or go down. Penalties and adjustments are done symmetrically. For example, a home loss to a bottom 40 team is -.0026, and an away win at a Top 40 team is .0026. There are adjustments for ties, which use the same RPI ranges and are .0013 less than the adjustment for beating that team. For example, a win hosting a Top 40 team is .0022, and a tie hosting that team is .0009. We did not have any nonconference ties. For the best positive category of a win at a Top 40 team, a win (.0026) is double a tie (.0013). For the worst positive category of a win hosting a 41-80 team, a win (.0015) is 7.5 times a tie (.0002).

Edit: Towson took a 2-1 lead! Maybe me posting on multiple message boards about how bad they are is a jinx. Northeastern leads Elon 4-0, so Elon is likely to lose consecutive games and have 2 of their 3 CAA losses be blowouts as they lost 5-0 at us. UNCW equalized, and if that game ends tied then we just need a tie for the regular season title. We lead 2-1 at 82:36.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

Towson won 2-1! JMU beat Drexel 3-0. Northeastern beat Elon 4-0. All the games are over except for us leading 2-1 in regulation and UNCW at Delaware going to overtime.

Edit: We won 2-1. We're 13-3-2 overall and 7-0-2 for 23 points in the CAA. That's despite having played 7 home games and 11 away games. All of our losses were at teams who could make the NCAA Tournament. Delaware scored at 94:54 to get the second bye and drop UNCW to third. UNCW allowed 3 goals in their first CAA game, 1 in their next 7 which was at us, and 3 in their last CAA game. https://caasports.com/standings.aspx?path=wsoc has the standings, and I'll post the CAA part:

Hofstra: 7-0-2 for 23 points
Delaware: 7-2-0 for 21 points
UNCW: 6-2-1 for 19 points
Northeastern: 5-3-1 for 16 points (won head-to-head tiebreaker over Elon today)
Elon: 5-3-1 win for 16 points
JMU: 4-4-1 for 13 points
W&M: 3-5-1 for 10 points
Charleston: 2-7-0 for 6 points
Drexel: 1-7-1 for 4 points
Towson: 1-8-0 for 3 points

That will make the CAA Tournament have:

Friday November 1:
4 Northeastern vs. 5 Elon hosted by 1 Hofstra
3 UNCW vs. 6 JMU hosted by 2 Delaware

Sunday November 3:
1 Hofstra hosting Northeastern or Elon
2 Delaware hosting UNCW or JMU

Saturday November 9:
Better remaining seed hosting worse remaining seed

If you go by the regular season results, we should root for Elon. We won 5-0 hosting Elon and played a 2-2 tie at Northeastern. Northeastern and Delaware were the only CAA teams to score 2 against us, and no CAA team scored at least 3 against us. The tiebreaker between 4 and 5 is meaningless unless you care about the better seed wearing home colors or something. Under the old format where 4 hosted 5, 3 hosted 6, and 1 hosted the Semifinals and Final the next week, the tiebreaker between 4 and 5 mattered.
Last edited by EvanJ on Sun Oct 27, 2019 5:05 pm, edited 2 times in total.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

https://caasports.com/news/2019/10/27/f ... nship.aspx is titled "Field Is Set For 2019 CAA Women's Soccer Championship." On Friday, the game at Delaware will be at 1:00 P.M., and the game we host will be at 7:00 P.M. On Sunday, both Semifinals will be at 1:00 P.M. The time for the Final has not announced announced because it could be at Delaware (if they win and we lose to Northeastern or Elon) or Elon (if they beat Northeastern and us and JMU beats UNCW and Delaware), both of whom have home Football games that day.

It says our 13 game undefeated streak is the longest active streak, which is the second time we had that this calendar year after Men's Basketball.

I need to buy FloSports for November through March.

Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1N2jmLWzjDM has highlights of our win. The highlights were made by Hofstra and don't show W&M's goal. https://gohofstra.com/news/2019/10/27/w ... slate.aspx still calls W&M's goal a "team" goal. I don't know NCAA rules, so maybe the NCAA says "team" for what is called an own goal in professional soccer. After showing the last goal, the highlights went back to a W&M chance with the score 1-1. W&M shot from near Kuzmich, who came out of the goal. I can't tell if Kuzmich touched it or it got under her arms. Either way, it kept going and rolled just wide. While we led 2-1, W&M passed to an open teammate in front of the goal, but the ball hit her feet, and by the time she controlled and kicked it, Hofstra blocked it.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

We fell 7 spots to 22nd. The website that has RPI values hasn't updated, so I don't know how much worse our SOS got. Penn fell to 91st, so our adjustment went from .0055 to .0035.
HofstraPride1
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by HofstraPride1 »

We were hurt by playing 299th-ranked Towson which underscores why RPI is flawed metric since we had no choice but to schedule them. Hopefully we take care of business and win CAA AQ, but if we fall short we will at least be on bubble for an at-large bid.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

SOS is two-thirds opponents' winning percentage, which fell from .6354 to .5957, for a drop of .0397. SOS is one-third opponents' opponents' winning percentage, which fell from .5219 to .5197, for a drop of .0022. That made overall SOS fall .0272, and that's three-quarters of RPI, so that part made RPI fall .0204. Our winning percentage rose .0278, and that's one-quarter of RPI, so that part made RPI rise .0069*. Our adjustment fell .0020. That's a net drop of .0155. Our RPI fell from .6412 to .6257, which is a drop of .0155.

* .0278/4 = .00695, which rounds up to .0070. However, the .0278 is .02(7 repeating), which is less than .0278, so dividing the exact value by 4 makes a number that rounds down to .0069.

Winning the Semifinal and losing the Final will make our winning percentage go back down to .7500, which would make our RPI go down to .6188 if our SOS and adjustment remained the same, and the SOS would probably go up. If our RPI was .6188 now, we would only be one spot lower. I would be surprised if a win and a loss sent us out of the Top 30. Losing the Semifinal would drop our RPI to .6155 if our SOS and adjustment remained the same, and that would drop us four spots if it was our RPI now.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

If we win the CAA Tournament and the committee considers us one of the Top 32 teams, we'll get an NCAA Tournament home game. The First Round is played alone, with the next two rounds the following week.

Our SOS is the best in the CAA and 55th overall. The top seven CAA teams have an SOS in the top half and the bottom three CAA teams have an SOS in the bottom half. CAA teams have an average RPI of 147.8 and an average SOS of 127.0, which are both better than the average of (338+1)/2 = 169.5. We have a better SOS than Oklahoma State, Michigan, Cal, Georgetown, Iowa, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Tennessee, Mississippi (Ole Miss), Texas Christian (TCU), Xavier, Butler, Illinois, Villanova, Indiana, Creighton, Maryland, Arizona State, Northwestern, Marquette, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Seton Hall. That's 26 of the 74 Power 5 + Big East teams that play Women's Soccer, which is 35.1 percent.
HofstraPride1
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by HofstraPride1 »

Is that a new rule for this year Evan where you automatically get a home game with a top 32 RPI? We were higher than that in 2015 and 2017 and were still sent on road.
EvanJ wrote:If we win the CAA Tournament and the committee considers us one of the Top 32 teams, we'll get an NCAA Tournament home game. The First Round is played alone, with the next two rounds the following week.

Our SOS is the best in the CAA and 55th overall. The top seven CAA teams have an SOS in the top half and the bottom three CAA teams have an SOS in the bottom half. CAA teams have an average RPI of 147.8 and an average SOS of 127.0, which are both better than the average of (338+1)/2 = 169.5. We have a better SOS than Oklahoma State, Michigan, Cal, Georgetown, Iowa, Vanderbilt, Oregon State, Tennessee, Mississippi (Ole Miss), Texas Christian (TCU), Xavier, Butler, Illinois, Villanova, Indiana, Creighton, Maryland, Arizona State, Northwestern, Marquette, Michigan State, Ohio State, Pittsburgh, Kentucky, Syracuse, and Seton Hall. That's 26 of the 74 Power 5 + Big East teams that play Women's Soccer, which is 35.1 percent.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

I didn't say a Top 32 RPI. I said if the Committee thinks we're one of the Top 32. If we win the CAA Tournament, the committee will need to take a lot of teams below us to not let us host. Even if we lose our next game we could finish in the Top 32 of the RPI. Furthermore, not that TV ratings and other revenue for the NCAA that favors teams in the top conferences should matter, but if it does matter it would matter more for Men's Basketball than any other tournament.

The CAA is 11th in the Conference RPI. Given the average rank of the teams, that's not surprising. Here are the rankings:

1. Pac-12
2. ACC
3. SEC
4. Big 12
5. Ivy
6. Big Ten
7. West Coast
8. Big East
9. American
10. C-USA
11. CAA
12. Mountain West
13. A10
14. Southern
15. Sun Belt
16. Atlantic Sun
17. Big West
18. Summit
19. Mid-American
20. Missouri Valley
21. Patriot
22. Western Athletic
23. Horizon
24. America East
25. MAAC
26. Southland
27. Ohio Valley
28. Big Sky
29. Big South
30. Northeast
31. Southwestern Athletic

The Mid-Eastern Athletic (MEAC) does not exist in Women's Soccer.

A website lists 92 factors that can go for, against, or not apply to a team in either direction. For an at-large bid (which should happen if necessary), we have 22 factors for and 0 against. Call this a positive differential. Adding the teams with positive differentials and AQs who don't have more positive differentials makes 59 teams, so 5 at-larges are available beyond that. This will change a little before Selection Monday, but there will probably be more at-larges without positive differentials than teams left out with positive differentials. Our +22 differential ranks 23rd, which is close to our RPI of 22nd.
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

https://gohofstra.com/news/2019/10/31/w ... ition.aspx is titled "WSOC: Four Win Major CAA Postseason Awards, Program Record Eight Receive All-CAA Recognition."

Sabrina Bryan: Attacking Player of the Year, First Team
Lucy Porter: Midfielder of the Year, First Team
Anja Suttner: Co-Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Rookie Team, and First Team
Miri Taylor: First Team
Lucy Shepherd: Second Team
Jordan Littleboy: Third Team
Bella Richards: Third Team
Skylar Kuzmich: Rookie Team (with the aforementioned Suttner we have two on the Rookie Team)
Simon Riddiough: Coach of the Year for the third time

We had seven players on the First, Second, or Third Team. I wonder what team in any conference had the most Third Team or higher players.

It links to https://caasports.com/news/2019/10/29/c ... ealed.aspx which is titled "CAA Women's Soccer Awards Revealed." UNCW's Baley Edwards was the only senior on the First Team.

Edit: I learned that Men's Soccer Coach Richard Nuttall has a son on Men's Soccer and a daughter on Women's Soccer.
Last edited by EvanJ on Fri Nov 01, 2019 1:59 pm, edited 2 times in total.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

4 Northeastern vs. 5 Elon played at 1 Hofstra, and 3 UNCW vs. James Madison played at 2 Delaware started at 1:00 P.M. The CAA originally had the game at Hofstra listed for 7:00 P.M. Both Semifinals on Sunday will be at 1:00 P.M. In their preview, Elon wrote that they were picked ninth in the CAA. This is their sixth year in the CAA, and they were last in four of their first five. For Northeastern vs. Elon, http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcas ... confid=caa has statistics and https://www.flofc.com/live/14238 has video for FloSports subscribers. For UNCW vs. James Madison, http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcas ... confid=caa has statistics and https://www.flofc.com/live/18784 has video for FloSports subscribers.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

Northeastern donminated shots, 18 to 9, and shots on goal, 10 to 3, but Elon led over 58 minutes and won 2-1. Hannah Doherty gave Elon an early lead at 6:35, Northeastern's Kayla McCauley tied it at 62:56, and Jessica Carrieri scored the winner at 87:30. Elon's Katrin Hauksdottir made 8 saves, but Elon made 9 saves without using another goalkeeper, so the statistics are inconsistent. Elon used 18 players. 6 played 90, 1 played 83, 1 played 75, and 10 played 13 to 47. Rotating players is important when you have one day off before playing at a rested team that's better than you. The CAA season-high is 16 by Towson's Lindsey Pazdziorko at George Washington, and the season-high in game between two CAA teams is 11 by Northeastern's Angeline Friel hosting us.
Northeastern had all 6 corner kicks, and Elon had all 4 offsides. With James Madison's 3-2 win over UNCW, both worse seeds won. The oral countdown had to be stopped when UNCW scored with 7 seconds left, but it was too little too late.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

We went up 3-0 and won 3-1. Elon got their first shot on goal in the 75th minute, which was the first shot on goal of the second half for either team. For our third goal, Amanda Ebbesson went down the sideline. I though she didn't have room and should pass back, but she crossed to Sabrina Bryan, who scored her second goal. Anja Suttner scored in between. While up 2-0, Lucy Porter had a penalty kick saved. Shots were 26 to 4, and shots on goal were 5 to 2.

https://gohofstra.com/sports/womens-soc ... score/9084 is the box score.

https://gohofstra.com/news/2019/11/3/wo ... -elon.aspx is our recap titled "WSOC: Title Bound! Hofstra Rolls into CAA Championship with Commanding Victory over Elon."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftLEFf-cKp8 has 2:12 of highlights from the CAA.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrsJp7G7oQM is 4:58 with Coach Riddiough.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4FUzG_oPMo is 15:18 of highlights from Hofstra.

6 seed James Madison won 3-2 at Delaware. JMU tied it with 1:39 left and won with 7 seconds left in Overtime 1 after a corner kick. JMU had double the shots on goal, 14 to 7, so Delaware had fewer shots while leading 2-1.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOA2y1tdGCc is 3:00 of highlights of that game.

https://caasports.com/news/2019/11/3/ho ... match.aspx is titled "Hofstra, JMU Set for CAA Women's Soccer Championship Rematch."

Including both genders, Saturday will have the third consecutive CAA Soccer Final between us and JMU. The coverage of JMU at Delaware said the CAA has never had a three-peat.

Edit: It was Ebbesson's first Division I point. She's a junior who spent two seasons at Bridgeport and won last year's Division II Championship.

https://elonphoenix.com/news/2019/11/3/ ... inals.aspx is Elon's recap titled "Elon Falls To Hofstra In CAA Semifinals."
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by HofstraPride1 »

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/soccer-wo ... soccer-rpi

Up to #18 in latest's RPI released today. Our CAA finals opponent JMU is 150 so a loss would drop us a lot, although we still would likely be in good shape for an at large. A win would give us a shot at hosting a first round game. A loss in penalty kicks would go down as a draw in the RPI and may still keep us in contention to host first round game.
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

We gained 1 poll point from 6 to 7, but fell from 7th to 10th in Others Receiving Votes. Given that, winning the CAA Tournament won't be enough to get us ranked, and our only chance is in a Final Poll if there is one.
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

I missed our early goal, and I don't know what time it was scored at because http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=284552 is supposed to have statistics, but it hasn't started.

Edit: The announcers say JMU has had a majority of the possession, but we still lead 1-0, and the statistics still haven't started. Brittany Munson, who has started 15 of JMU's 21 games and is tenth on her team in minutes, went to Calhoun High School.

Edit: With 6:11 left in the half, Hofstra had a corner kick, and an announcer said it would be big go up 2-0. Megan Fisher scored her second goal of the season. According to the scoreboard, shots on goal are 3 to 1, and Hofstra had a couple of other shots go a little wide.

Edit: We lead 2-0 at halftime.
ProudofPride
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by ProudofPride »

EvanJ wrote:I missed our early goal, and I don't know what time it was scored at because http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=284552 is supposed to have statistics, but it hasn't started.

Edit: The announcers say JMU has had a majority of the possession, but we still lead 1-0, and the statistics still haven't started. Brittany Munson, who has started 15 of JMU's 21 games and is tenth on her team in minutes, went to Calhoun High School.

Edit: With 6:11 left in the half, Hofstra had a corner kick, and an announcer said it would be big go up 2-0. Megan Fisher scored her second goal of the season. According to the scoreboard, shots on goal are 3 to 1, and Hofstra had a couple of other shots go a little wide.

Edit: We lead 2-0 at halftime.
Stats are here, there were 2 different links. http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=287145
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

Thank you. The goals were Lucy Porter at 3:38, Megan Fisher at 38:48 that I mentioned earlier, Sabrina Bryan at 47:13, Lucy Shepherd at 57:46, and a penalty kick by Iris Rabot at 68:41 ended the shutout. We lead 4-1 with under 19 minutes left.

Edit: Lucy Porter scored with 1:52 left, and we won 5-1.
ProudofPride
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by ProudofPride »

What are the chances of HU hosting a first round NCAA tourney game?
EvanJ
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Re: 2019 Women's Soccer

Post by EvanJ »

The First Round is the only round that week. Unless the Selection Committee thinks we are much worse than our RPI, we will host because that just requires you to be in the Top 32. Four regions each have a 1, 2, 3, 4, and 12 unseeded teams. Through last week, one site had us as the first team out in getting one of the 16 seeds. If we get a 4 seed, win in the First Round, and the 1 seed in the region loses in the First Round (the odds could be 1 in 1,000, but it's hypothetically possible), we would host in the Second Round and Third Round that are played together. 8 teams host in the Second Round and Third Round. If we get a 4 seed, and us and the 1 seed both win, the 1 would host the Second Round with the 1 and us playing unseeded teams in the Second Round and facing each other in the Third Round if we both win. If we win in the Second Round and the 1 seed loses, the Third Round game would be at a neutral site because the host won't be in it. The only way to host in the Second and Third Rounds is if you are a 1 or 2 seed or the 1 or 2 seed in your region loses in the First Round.
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