Statistics Correlations For Seasons and Games
Posted: Wed Mar 27, 2019 1:36 pm
I took 15 variables and calculated correlations. One set was the correlation between that variable for the season and our winning percentage in that season for our 18 seasons in the CAA. The second set was the correlation between that variable and our point differential for every game this season. I used points differential per game as a variable in the first set only because then I was correlating it with winning percentage. I called it Variable A rather than giving it a number so Variables 1 through 15 would match in the two sets. In the second set, I was correlating the other 15 variables with point differential in that game. Here are the variables and how I calculated them:
Season:
A. Points per game differential: (Points-Opponents' Points)/Games (the same formula is used for Variables A and 1 through 6 just changing the statistic)
1. Rebounds per game differential: (Rebounds-opponents' Rebounds)/Games
2. Assists per game differential: (Assists-opponents' Assists)/Games
3. Steals per game differential: (Steals-opponents' Steals)/Games
4. Blocked shots per game differential: (Blocked shots-opponents' Blocked shots)/Games
5. Fouls per game differential: (Opponents' fouls - fouls)/games (I made it positive to have fewer fouls because they are bad)
6. Turnovers per game differential: (Opponents' turnovers - turnovers)/games (I made it positive to have fewer turnovers because they are bad)
7. Field goal percentage differential: Field goals/field goal attempts - opponents' field goals/opponents' field goal attempts
8. Three-point field goal percentage differential: Three-point field goals/three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goals/opponents' three-point field goal attempts
9. Free throw percentage differential: Free throws/free throw attempts - opponents' free throws/opponents' free throw attempts
10. Field goal attempts per game differential: Field goal attempts per game - opponents' field goal attempts per game
11. Three-point field goal attempts per game differential: Three-point field goal attempts per game - opponents' three-point field goal attempts per game
12. Free throw attempts per game differential: Free throw attempts per game - opponents' free throw attempts per game
13. Assists/field goals differential: Assists/field goals - opponents' assists/opponents' field goals
14. Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts differential: Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts - opponent's three-point field goals attempts/opponents' field goals attempts
15. Assist-to-turnover ratio differential: Assists/turnovers - opponents' assists/opponents' turnovers
Game:
1. Rebounds differential: Rebounds - opponents' rebounds
2. Assists differential: Assists - opponents' assists
3. Steals differential: Steals - opponents' steals
4. Blocked shots differential: Blocked shots - opponents' blocked shots
5. Fouls differential: Opponents' fouls - fouls (I made it positive to have fewer fouls because they are bad)
6. Turnovers differential: Opponents' turnovers - turnovers (I made it positive to have fewer turnovers because they are bad)
7. Field goal percentage differential: Field goals/field goal attempts - opponents' field goals/opponents' field goal attempts
8. Three-point field goal percentage differential: Three-point field goals/three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goals/opponents' three-point field goal attempts
9. Free throw percentage differential: Free throws/free throw attempts - opponents' free throws/opponents' free throw attempts
10. Field goal attempts differential: Field goal attempts - opponents' field goal attempts
11. Three-point field goal attempts differential: Three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goal attempts
12. Free throw attempts differential: Free throw attempts - opponents' free throw attempts
13. Assists/field goals differential: Assists/field goals - opponents' assists/opponents' field goals
14. Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts differential: Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts - opponent's three-point field goals attempts/opponents' field goals attempts
15. Assist-to-turnover ratio differential: Assists/turnovers - opponents' assists/opponents' turnovers
Correlation ranges from 1 to negative 1. All of them correlations are things I expected to be positive, but one of them was negative. Here are the correlations:
Season:
A. .8935
1. -.1442
2. .5816
3. .7219
4. .4904
5. .1418
6. .6394
7. .8047
8. .4862
9. .4648
10. .1207
11. .3062
12. .2694
13. .1912
14. .2636
15. .7342
Game:
1. .6302
2. .6049
3. .5578
4. .0836
5. .0746
6. .2513
7. .8525
8. .6241
9. .1702
10. .3166
11. .2160
12. .0393
13. .1352
14. .0855
15. .4230
Then I calculated the correlation between season correlations and game correlations for Variables 1 through 15. The correlation was 0.3768. I did this, and then I realized I hadn't done the season correlation to include 2018-2019 because I did the previous seasons before 2018-2019 was done. Adding 2018-2019 to the season correlations made the correlation between the two sets of correlations drop so much that it makes me wonder if I made a mistake.
Season:
A. Points per game differential: (Points-Opponents' Points)/Games (the same formula is used for Variables A and 1 through 6 just changing the statistic)
1. Rebounds per game differential: (Rebounds-opponents' Rebounds)/Games
2. Assists per game differential: (Assists-opponents' Assists)/Games
3. Steals per game differential: (Steals-opponents' Steals)/Games
4. Blocked shots per game differential: (Blocked shots-opponents' Blocked shots)/Games
5. Fouls per game differential: (Opponents' fouls - fouls)/games (I made it positive to have fewer fouls because they are bad)
6. Turnovers per game differential: (Opponents' turnovers - turnovers)/games (I made it positive to have fewer turnovers because they are bad)
7. Field goal percentage differential: Field goals/field goal attempts - opponents' field goals/opponents' field goal attempts
8. Three-point field goal percentage differential: Three-point field goals/three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goals/opponents' three-point field goal attempts
9. Free throw percentage differential: Free throws/free throw attempts - opponents' free throws/opponents' free throw attempts
10. Field goal attempts per game differential: Field goal attempts per game - opponents' field goal attempts per game
11. Three-point field goal attempts per game differential: Three-point field goal attempts per game - opponents' three-point field goal attempts per game
12. Free throw attempts per game differential: Free throw attempts per game - opponents' free throw attempts per game
13. Assists/field goals differential: Assists/field goals - opponents' assists/opponents' field goals
14. Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts differential: Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts - opponent's three-point field goals attempts/opponents' field goals attempts
15. Assist-to-turnover ratio differential: Assists/turnovers - opponents' assists/opponents' turnovers
Game:
1. Rebounds differential: Rebounds - opponents' rebounds
2. Assists differential: Assists - opponents' assists
3. Steals differential: Steals - opponents' steals
4. Blocked shots differential: Blocked shots - opponents' blocked shots
5. Fouls differential: Opponents' fouls - fouls (I made it positive to have fewer fouls because they are bad)
6. Turnovers differential: Opponents' turnovers - turnovers (I made it positive to have fewer turnovers because they are bad)
7. Field goal percentage differential: Field goals/field goal attempts - opponents' field goals/opponents' field goal attempts
8. Three-point field goal percentage differential: Three-point field goals/three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goals/opponents' three-point field goal attempts
9. Free throw percentage differential: Free throws/free throw attempts - opponents' free throws/opponents' free throw attempts
10. Field goal attempts differential: Field goal attempts - opponents' field goal attempts
11. Three-point field goal attempts differential: Three-point field goal attempts - opponents' three-point field goal attempts
12. Free throw attempts differential: Free throw attempts - opponents' free throw attempts
13. Assists/field goals differential: Assists/field goals - opponents' assists/opponents' field goals
14. Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts differential: Three-point field goals attempts/field goals attempts - opponent's three-point field goals attempts/opponents' field goals attempts
15. Assist-to-turnover ratio differential: Assists/turnovers - opponents' assists/opponents' turnovers
Correlation ranges from 1 to negative 1. All of them correlations are things I expected to be positive, but one of them was negative. Here are the correlations:
Season:
A. .8935
1. -.1442
2. .5816
3. .7219
4. .4904
5. .1418
6. .6394
7. .8047
8. .4862
9. .4648
10. .1207
11. .3062
12. .2694
13. .1912
14. .2636
15. .7342
Game:
1. .6302
2. .6049
3. .5578
4. .0836
5. .0746
6. .2513
7. .8525
8. .6241
9. .1702
10. .3166
11. .2160
12. .0393
13. .1352
14. .0855
15. .4230
Then I calculated the correlation between season correlations and game correlations for Variables 1 through 15. The correlation was 0.3768. I did this, and then I realized I hadn't done the season correlation to include 2018-2019 because I did the previous seasons before 2018-2019 was done. Adding 2018-2019 to the season correlations made the correlation between the two sets of correlations drop so much that it makes me wonder if I made a mistake.