Next years team and expectations

[stuball888]

The NIT is over now lets see what next year will bring
Here is my take
This team now reminds me of the team in Speedys senior year. Just like speedy , JWF is the security blanket for this years team like speedy was back in the day. What happened the year after Speedy left was the seniors stepped up and was as good as the team the year before. In fact that team accomplished some things Speedys teams didn't. First they beat St Johns for the first time. Second they won on the road at Vermont. I believe this team will do the same as that team did. Time for the underclassmen to take reigns of this team and collectively stay focused on the final prize, an NCAA auto bid.

[HUSID74]

Nice analogy Stu, hope it comes to pass but we have some holes to fill. I will feel ALOT better about next year's team if Jacquil comes back and Pemberton morphs into Richardson LOL

[garyg]

What about Lars Grubler and his ferocious dunk against St. Johns at the Coliseum...LOL

[triplec2195]

What about Lars Grubler and his ferocious dunk against St. Johns at the Coliseum...LOL

I certainly don't remember that and really just have a vague recollection of Lars Grubler. I more remember a guy named Gary Cheslock who was 6' 8" and it was questionable whether he could dunk or not. I think he had a game where he scored 42 points on the road on all layups.

Anyway with the graduations in this league and the purge that's going on at W&M this could be a league that's in turmoil with a lot of parity top to bottom so who will emerge as a favorite could almost be anyone. I think we will be in this mix if we land the right players. Pemberton is going to have to play like a senior and one of the leaders on this team. We need a SG transfer who is immediately eligible like a Nesmith, Upshaw or maybe Mike Moore. That would be a big plus.

[garyg]

It happened Trip...LOL...season immediately following Jay Wright's departure...

[Polito]

This team returns some nice talent and experience, and the CAA will once again be mediocre at best, which means it should be a good year in general. 2 Srs and 2 Jrs and 1 xfer Soph will start - that's pretty darn good - a lot of age in that lineup, which normally bodes really well for teams.

I see the CAA top 4 being NU, CofC, UD, and HU (not necessarily in that order). JMU will be upper middle and be a nuisance, but not a threat IMO to win it. No one else.

JT back would def be huge - but even bigger to me is actually the next 6th man with Ray stepping into the starter role. Major piece for JM teams.

Pemba really disappointed - like really. It's a nice thought Stu, but that's not happening next year. This team is not like that one. Biggest factor for that is Pemba's total regression. In the AE champ game Speedys last year, Speedy actually did not play great - but Stormin Norman was a BEAST. He won that game to dance. Pemba did nothing of the sort, and his poor performances played a huge factor in HU tanking the bed in both the CAAT and the NIT. Not fun to see, nor the right omen for next yr.

That said, all in all, I think it's a real good bet that it will be another good fun year with some exciting play, and they'll win some games for sure - but no meaningful postseason if any at all, just like all the others.

This will be so easy to predict if we are going to be honest with ourselves. This team will most likely win 18-22 games, which is def not a bad thing, will be "in the mix" like normal, play some good ball win some games, give a fight, and then falter towards the end. Although it would be ironic and funny as all heck if by some stroke of luck HU did make the dance the year JWF leaves... but my money is on that not happening.

JM has done his job and resurrected this program from the dead, produced a fun exciting team full of great kids, and will hit the NIT prob once more before he's done. His peak has been shown and is known. This will be our ride until he's finished in the next couple of years. Then it will be VERY interesting to see what move Cole makes... by that time wouldn't be surprised for Grasso or Speedy to be tapped. We'll see - this program really needs a young up-and-comer with fire to make a splash and get this program over the hump. Need a VCU type hire in the worst way.

[EvanJ]

This team returns some nice talent and experience, and the CAA will once again be mediocre at best, which means it should be a good year in general. 2 Srs and 2 Jrs and 1 xfer Soph will start - that's pretty darn good - a lot of age in that lineup, which normally bodes really well for teams.

I see the CAA top 4 being NU, CofC, UD, and HU (not necessarily in that order). JMU will be upper middle and be a nuisance, but not a threat IMO to win it. No one else.

If all of the players stay NU and W&M have the best returning players, and W&M fans say they have a good forward who's a transfer who will play next season. Nathan Knight, Justin Pierce, and Matt Milon combined to average 48.8 points, 20.7 rebounds, and 8.9 assists. By statistics without caring about what conference everybody plays in, they must be among the best groups of three teammates who are all juniors now out of all 353 teams. Starting guards Chase Audige and Luke Loewe and subs L.J. Owens and Thornton Scott return.

Edit: triplec2195 said that Milon and Audige will transfer. Teams who don't have players go to the NBA early are less likely to lose good players who aren't seniors, but the CAA has had notable transfers in the last few years. There were Canyon Barry, Elijah Bryant, Ryan Daly, Zane Martin, Justin Gorham, Tramaine Isabell, C.J. Bryce, and Damion Lee.

NU has plenty of guards without Vasa Pusica, and they weren't nearly as reliant on Anthony Green for rebounds as we were on Taylor. They also had Shawn Occeus miss a majority of the games and Maxime Boursiquot miss the whole season. Occeus, Bolden Brace, Jordan Roland, and Donnell Gresham all made over 1.5 threes per game. Pusica was the point guard, but Gresham (3.0 assists per game) and Brace (2.7 assists per game) can also do that. Brace led them with 6.1 rebounds. Boursiquot averaged 6.3 points and 3.8 rebounds in 2017-2018 and could be a starting forward with Green gone.

UD has nobody returning who averaged over 4.2 rebounds. In addition to Eric Carter; they lose Darian Bryant, who led them with 1,108 minutes, which was nin the in the CAA; and seventh man Ryan Johnson, who averaged 3.5 points and 2.8 rebounds. Starting guards Ryan Allen, Kevin Anderson, and Ithiel Horton return.

DU loses their leading scorer in Troy Harper and third leading scorer in Trevor John, but they didn't have many rebounds or assists. ROY Camren Wynter was great at assists, assists/turnovers, and steals, but he could shoot better. Alihan Demir, James Butler, and Tim Perry Jr. return as forwards. Wynter, Demir, and Butler were starters. Sub guard Jarvis Doles, who averaged 4.1 points, returns. Three players missed most of the season due to injury. Zach Walton averaged 9.6 points and 4.6 rebounds in 7 games, Kurk Lee averaged 9.3 points in 6 games, and Kevin Doi averaged 4.5 points in 4 games. Walton and Lee were juniors, and Doi was a senior, so I don't know if he will take a redshirt season and return. Lee averaged 14.9 points as a freshman and 12.4 as a sophomore.

TU only loses fourth leading scorer Jordan McNeil and sub Alex Thomas, who was ninth on them in points per game and minutes per game. Freshman Nicolas Timberlake, who got injured after 9 games, got a redshirt season and will be a redshirt freshman next season, and I excluded him when ranking their scorers. He averaged 6.4 points. They return leading scorer Brian Fobbs who averaged 17.5 points and 5.9 rebounds; second leading scorer Tobias Howard, who averaged 10.2 points and led them with 2.5 assists; third leading scorer Nakye Sanders, who averaged 8.3 points, and 5.5 rebounds; and fourth leading scorer Dennis Tunstall, who averaged 5.7 points and led them with 7.7 points.

JMU loses second leading scorer Stuckey Mosley and sub forward Develle Phillips. Mosley didn't shoot well, and was impacted by an injury at the end of the season that let Matt Lewis lead them with 1 more point than Mosley. Phillips played less than last season, and his playing time decreased at the end. His 3.7 points per sixth of them and more than Zach Jacobs and Greg Jones, who were the other sub forwards. Lewis led them in scoring by 1 and was second on them in assists with 1 fewer than freshman Deshon Parker, and Lewis had 2.3 times as many turnovers as Parker. They started four guards and return third leading scorer and second leading rebounder Darius Banks and fourth leading scorer and leading rebounder Dwight Wilson.

UNCW loses Devontae Cacok and sub forward Shawn O'Connell, who was a transfer they had only this season. They had nine regulars, and O'Connell was eighth in minutes per game and third in assists per game. Their top returning scorers is Jeantal Cylla, who averaged 13.7 points and 4.6 rebounds, but shot two-pointers and three-pointers poorly. His rebounds per game wasn't good for a starting forward, but his free throw percentage of .848 was great. Fans think Jaylen Fornes, who averaged 7.2 points, and/or Ty Taylor, who averaged 5.0 points, could transfer. Starting guards Ty Gadsden, Kai Toews, and Jay Estime' return. Gadsden was third in points per game, Toews was fourth, and Estime' was fifth. Gadsden shot threes .475, and he and Estime' attempted a lot. Toews didn't shoot well and didn't attempt many threes. Cylla is their only returning player who averaged over 3 rebounds.

Elon loses their top three scorers in Tyler Seibring, Steven Santa Ana, and Sheldon Eberhardt. Fourth leading scorer Nathan Priddy was a sophomore, and their fifth through eighth leading scorers were freshman. They had eight players average at least 3.5 points. Point guard Dainan Swoope played 5 games due to injury and could return as a redshirt senior, and I excluded him when ranking their scorers. He averaged 12.0 points and 3.9 assists in 2017-2018, but was a bad shooter. They lose Karolis Kundrotas, who averaged 2.1 points and 2.3 rebounds in 9.0 minutes and hardly played late in the season. His playing time changed like Trueheart's. Other than Swoope, their leading returning scorer is Priddy, who averaged 7.3, and their leading returning rebounder is freshman Federico Poser, who averaged 2.8 in 15.4 minutes. On a team that shoots many threes, Poser didn't attempt any. He attempted 84 field goals.

C of C will need to see if anybody other than Grant Riller does great. Riller scored 724, and their next four highest returning scorers combined for 722. They lose starting forwards Jarrell Brantley and Nick Harris and secondary point guard Marquise Pointer. Third leading scorer Brevin Galloway averaged 7.9 and fourth leading scorer Zep Jasper averaged 5.4. Galloway led them in threes per game with 1.5. Jasper was a redshirt freshman who was a starter at the beginning while Pointer was injured. Riller averaged 4.1 assists, and Brantley and Pointer averaged 2.4. Other than Riller, their most assists by a returning player is 1.3 by Jasper. Harris started every game other than the one he missed, but played fewer minutes than sub Jaylen McManus, who will be a senior. McManus is their leading returning rebounder at 3.8, Riller averaged 3.4, and no other returning player averaged at least 2.5.

[triplec2195]

Just amendments to this post Pierce has transferred from bill and Mary and Elon has three players that have already transferred. Swoope and Priddy and someone else per a prior post. Simon Wright that would be.

[Cards]

And recall the UD has added Villanova transfer C Dillon Painter - he should be eligible to play next season.

[triplec2195]

And recall the UD has added Villanova transfer C Dillon Painter - he should be eligible to play next season.

Yes clearly a plus for them.

[EvanJ]

Just amendments to this post Pierce has transferred from bill and Mary and Elon has three players that have already transferred. Swoope and Priddy and someone else per a prior post. Simon Wright that would be.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-873326.html says UNCW lost Fornes and Jeantal Cylla. Cylla joins Tramaine Isabell as players who transfer to the CAA as juniors and then left. UNCW's leading returning rebounder is Jaylen Sims, who averaged exactly 3 as a freshman. With Priddy gone, Elon's leading returning scorer is Kris Wooten, who averaged 5.4. Wright averaged 1.9, so he isn't much of a loss.

The CAA's Top 30 scorers had 11 seniors excluding Buie. Of the 19 who didn't graduate, Pierce, Cylla, and Milon transferred. Therefore unless all of the other 16 return, the CAA will lose at least half of its Top 30 scorers. The CAA has the Top 30 scorers with what season they were in for the last 9 seasons. There were 94 seniors for an average of 10 4/9. Nesmith and Koon had their last season blank, and I counted them as seniors. Nesmith had has first season with us listed as a senior, but I didn't count that as a senior. Other than Nesmith and Buie, I didn't check if anybody listed as a senior returned. After 2017-2018, 8 of the Top 30 scorers graduated, 3 transferred, 3 returned but missed a majority of the season due to injury, and 16 played in a majority of the games.

UNCW had Cacok, Cylla, Fornes, and O'Connell combine for 50.7 percent of their points. Elon had Seibring, Santa Ana, Eberhardt, Priddy, Swoope, Wright, and Kundrotas combine for 74.8 percent of their points. W&M had Pierce, Milon, Audige, and Rowley combine for 52.4 percent of their points. Those three teams are higher than the 46.4 percent of points we lose, which will go down to 36.2 percent if Taylor comes back and nobody leaves without graduating. If Taylor comes back, he could lead the CAA in rebounding. If Taylor leaves, Drexel's James Butler will be the leading returning rebounder in the CAA. He averaged 10.3 points and 8.2 rebounds. The only awards votes he got were 2 points for the Defensive Team, which ranked tied for 18th. JMU's Dwight Wilson at 7.8 and Towson's Dennis Tunstall at 7.7 are the only other returning layers who averaged at least 6.5. If Taylor leaves, Bolden Brace will be the only returning player on one of the top three teams who averaged at least 5 rebounds. Butler and Alihan Demir could be the best pair of forwards next season.

[triplec2195]

The exodus continues at W&M as L.J. Owens transfers a 6'3" freshman guard getting 24 minutes and scoring 6.9 points a game. Will Knight stay or leave??

[Polito]

Fornes leaving is HUGE. That kid can play, HU recruited him as well. Telling you, UNCW is about 1 more bad year away from making a change. And I doubt they make the same mistake twice. This is a rare time of non-W threat in this conf, need to take full advantage.

I'm normally all about kids sticking with their guns, showing loyalty, and respecting when they do stay in a tough situation. But if Knight stays there he would be beyond foolish. Team/program is shot for years. That young man needs to get the heck out of dodge, land on a big P5, and get himself a real shot at the league.

Some silly fans thought they might have a chance at JTIII... mama mia. Going to lead Vandy by the way. No stud coach should step near that program and AD.


Again, I've said before, but HU is one of the only programs in the entire CAA that does not have crazy exodus of it's top talent to deal with - this staff not only recruits excellent talent, they STAY. Big testament to the coaches. One of the biggest reasons HU is always 'old' and normally in the upper half of the league.

UD has the makings of causing some trouble next year. In my top 4 for sure.

[EvanJ]

The exodus continues at W&M as L.J. Owens transfers a 6'3" freshman guard getting 24 minutes and scoring 6.9 points a game. Will Knight stay or leave??

That brings them up to 57.3 percent of their points gone. With Ty Taylor and Matt Elmore transferring, UNCW is up to 57.6 percent of their points gone. The transfers make it more likely that Pemberton will make the preseason First Team.

[Wags]

UD has the makings of causing some trouble next year. In my top 4 for sure.

They also might be helped by playing the CAA tourney (in D.C.) a lot closer to home next year (and the following two years).

[triplec2195]

UD has the makings of causing some trouble next year. In my top 4 for sure.

They also might be helped by playing the CAA tourney (in D.C.) a lot closer to home next year (and the following two years).

Delaware might be the favorite here along with NE BUT lets not forget us we will be bringing back at least 3/5 of our starting team. Both us and NE are losing our star players but Delaware with Horton a rising star and Allen they will have a strong nucleus offensively. Although they r losing their leading scorer and rebounder in Carter. Will Painter replace Carter the jury is out on that I'm sure.

[EvanJ]

Comparing us to Delaware, I'd rank Pemberton above Ryan Allen. Allen shot threes a little better and had 0.03 more assists per game. Pemberton shot twos and free throws better and had over double the rebounds per game. Buie is a better point guard than Kevin Anderson, who didn't shoot well and had 1.31 assists per turnover, which is bad for a point guard. Coburn and Ray combined to shoot threes 102/250 = 4.08, and Ithiel Horton and Matt Veretto combined to shoot threes 115/285 = .404. Taking rebounds per 30 minutes each, Coburn and Ray combined for 7.95 and Horton and Veretto combined for 7.06.

[cactus]

In the AE champ game Speedys last year, Speedy actually did not play great - but Stormin Norman was a BEAST

I agree with the overall assessment with Pemberton vs. Richardson, but Speedy had 24 points, 7 boards, and 8 assists in that game. Richardson had a big game as well with 26 pts and shot a little better from the field.

[garyg]

Next year:

A] Pemberton must be fixed

B] Kante must be a double double machine

C] Buie needs to get scoring average up to 14-15-16 PPG...he has tools to do it

D] TC must improve his ball handling and become more consistent at both ends of court

E] Trueheart must embrace the 4 position and improve his defense, rebounding, and scoring down low

F] Ray must improve on his 39% shooting and also show that he can drive to the hoop effectively...

G] Hughes must continue to get stronger and gain experience playing at this level...would be great if he is a true sleeper for us

Obviously newcomers will also have an impact on next season...will be very interesting to see who they bring in

[Cards]

Is that all garyg?

You do hit on most of the needed improvements. Still must figure out who comes off the bench. If TC is at the 4, then we have no one on the current roster to come in and sub at the 1, 2, or 3 spots. IF ST plays the 4, then TC can come in at the 3. Gotta have those 6, 7, and maybe 8th guys off the bench.

It may end up being important to get a JUCO or immediately eligible transfer (so we have experience) to come off the bench. We shall see.