Flying Dutchmen Fans

Here are the probabilities from Ken Pomeroy:

Charleston: 31.3%
Northeastern: 29.6%
Hofstra: 14.8%
Towson: 12.0%
William & Mary: 7.1%
UNC Wilmington: 1.9%
James Madison: 1.4%
Elon: 0.8%
Delaware: 0.8%
Drexel: 0.4%

We're not the favorites, but I think we should be more than half of Northeastern.

Those probabilities are directly derived from the Pomeroy ratings, giving Charleston a slight advantage for being the "semi-home" team. Northeastern is the top team in the Ratings this year, at 105, 50 spots ahead of us, Charleston at 119.

Personally, I think we have better odds though, we're playing very well down the stretch.

I am irrationally confident based on these odds. That said, the games are all tough and they could certainly lose Sunday night.

In the last six CAA games for each team:

The 1, 4, and 5 combined to go 10-8, which becomes 8-6 when you take out both William & Mary against Charleston games.
The 2, 3, and 6 combined to go 14-4, which becomes 13-3 when you take out our game at UNCW.

I added to the topic title. I'm going to make a score prediction contest, but not for brackets. Predictions for each game must be posted at least 5 minutes before the announced start time. It doesn't matter if you predict a day in one post for each game or one post total as long as each game is predicted in time. If you are worried about not predicting games in time, you can predict days in advance, but your predictions will be worth 5 less than the worst person's score if you are wrong about one or both teams in the game. The reason it is 5 less rather than a fixed amount is that the predictions have a maximum score of 100 but no minimum score. You can predict in advance and change your predictions as much as you want as long as each game is predicted in time. Here is how the predictions will be scored:

Start with 100
Subtract 3 points for each point you were off on the margin
Subtract 1 point for each point you were off on the combined score

Points off is treated identical in both directions. If a team wins by 4, predicting them to win by 1 and win by 7 get the same deduction from the first category.
If you predict Hofstra to win 80-75 and they win 81-70, you will get 78. If you don't understand how to calculate that example, tell me.

I predict:
James Madison 76, Drexel 75
Delaware 76, Elon 72
Hofstra 83, UNC Wilmington 78 (I hope Hofstra wins by more)

OK so I'm confused but not on the math end. How can you make a prediction on COC playing W&M? What happens if W&M loses to Towson?? Am I missing something??

I screwed up and I deleted that prediction from my post above. I meant to predict W&M against Towson:

Towson 87, William & Mary 85

I want to post this contest on CSNBBS at http://csnbbs.com/forum-677.html and combine it into one contest.

They're on their way. Left early this morning on Amtrak.
https://twitter.com/HofstraMBB/status/9 ... 5079410688

OK I'll throw my hat in the ring on this for the hell of it;

Drexel 78, James Madison 70
Delaware 72, Elon 70
Hofstra 85, UNCW 80
W&M 82, Towson 78

With this crazy weather, train makes sense.

Should be more than halfway there by now I think, God bless, and Godspeed fellas!!!

Wonder if they are traing all the way down or going to DC and flying from there. Good thing we dont play until Sun night.

HUSID74 wrote:Wonder if they are traing all the way down or going to DC and flying from there. Good thing we dont play until Sun night.

From that Twitter pic, it looks like Amtrak the whole way (it showed a visual of the route from NY to SC).

Since they were in Newark at 6:17 am in that pic, they'll probably get to SC around dinner time, roughly 48-50 hours before their game on Sunday. Should be plenty of time to settle in and get ready for UNCW.

We definitely have the talent to win this thing....question is can we stay focused and aggressive for 40 minutes ???

I'll try this round by round, as we go, picking with 5 minutes left in each game (just kidding on that last part).

First game on Saturday is really splitting hairs: they beat each at home by two points, by nearly identical scores: JMU won at home, 75-73, then lost at Drexel, 76-74, twelve days later. And Drexel averages 75 ppg, JMU 74.
My head says JMU because they're down south, with more fans, longer trip for Drexel, etc. But my gut says Drexel, which is a little more balanced and has the best scorer in the game in Isabell.
81-76, Dragons.

The nightcap on Saturday: their two games (just like HU's against Elon) were very different: Elon beat Delaware at home by the same score they won by at Hofstra (89-76), then lost at Delaware, 72-57, two weeks later.
Have to go with Delaware which finished 2-2, with that win over Elon and was otherwise in two-point games in the other three over that stretch (albeit one included the biggest blown lead in D-I history. lol)
Elon finished terribly and I don't think they'll get it back, even after a long layoff to sort it all out. Their last win was a month ago tomorrow, ironically that 89-76 win over Delaware. They haven't been like that in a long time.
73-64, Blue Hens.

Wags wrote:

HUSID74 wrote:Wonder if they are traing all the way down or going to DC and flying from there. Good thing we dont play until Sun night.

From that Twitter pic, it looks like Amtrak the whole way (it showed a visual of the route from NY to SC).

Since they were in Newark at 6:17 am in that pic, they'll probably get to SC around dinner time, roughly 48-50 hours before their game on Sunday. Should be plenty of time to settle in and get ready for UNCW.

Gustys posted on his twitter that they got there after 14 hours on the train. hope they didn't partake in too many of those stale white castle burgers they sell on Amtrak.

I'll give it a try

Drexel 81, James Madison 74
Elon 77, Delaware 74

I'll join in on the fun here:

JMU 79 Drexel 76
Delaware 74 Elon 70

Hofstra 81 UNCW 77 (and like EvanJ; hoping for a huge win though)
W&M 80 Towson 76

Lower scoring than I thought in the first game, but Drexel did win. Something to keep an eye on as the tournament goes on with the second game tonight and the first three games tomorrow. The CAA was about the offense league-wide this season, but the tournament is normally when the pace slows down a bit and the defense takes over a little more. That may not be good for HU, which wants to play faster and outscore teams. They're going to have to play at least some D (and not leave so many points at the line) in this tourney. The shooting was awful (JMU 31.8%, Drexel 32.7%). Isabel only 5/17, but he got to the line for a game-high 24 pts. Half of those came in the last 4 mins after Drexel was down 1. He played 38 mins, but came off the bench. Wonder why.

Do you have to sign up first to watch the tourney on CAA.tv? These links don't seem to work:
http://caasports.com/tournaments/?id=96

The links go to http://caasports.com/tournaments/CAA.tv which doesn't work. Going to CAA.tv works. Delaware vs. Elon is at https://portal.stretchinternet.com/caa/ ... Type=video and Delaware leads 32-24.

EvanJ wrote:The links go to http://caasports.com/tournaments/CAA.tv which doesn't work. Going to CAA.tv works. Delaware vs. Elon is at https://portal.stretchinternet.com/caa/ ... Type=video and Delaware leads 32-24.

Ah, thanks Evan!

Funny, went 2-for-2, but I went higher scoring on Drexel-JMU and it was lower scoring.
I went lower scoring on Delaware-Elon, and it was higher scoring.

Delaware wins, 86-79. Obviously, work to do for Hofstra tomorrow night and nothing should be assumed for Northeastern, but this is potentially a good result if the second semifinal is what we expect it to be on Monday night. Delaware will make Northeastern work a lot more than Elon would have.