We Can Clinch The Regular Season Title Before Our Last Game

[EvanJ]

If these three events happen:

Hofstra beats UNC Wilmington on Thursday
Towson beats James Madison on Thursday at 8:00 P.M. on SNY
Towson beats UNC Wilmington on Saturday at 1:00 P.M.

Then Hofstra would lead UNC Wilmington by 0.5 game with 1 game to play for us and none for them. Towson will have finished ahead of James Madison in that case because they're currently tied and Towson would have won both including over James Madison. Then the tiebreaker between Hofstra and UNC Wilmington would be record vs. Towson, William & Mary, or both of them combined, and Hofstra would win all of those tiebreakers. That would give Hofstra the regular season titled before hosting College of Charleston.

[cactus]

Do you know all the tiebreaker scenarios if Hofstra was to win tomorrow vs UNCW and Hofstra and UNCW both win/lose their last game? Usually the conference puts out a list of the scenarios but it's probably pending the Hofstra/UNCW game.

[HofstraMathew]

Do you know all the tiebreaker scenarios if Hofstra was to win tomorrow vs UNCW and Hofstra and UNCW both win/lose their last game? Usually the conference puts out a list of the scenarios but it's probably pending the Hofstra/UNCW game.

Its best record verse the third place team, then the fourth place team and so on. Also ties are broken from the top down. So if two teams tied for third then the tiebreaker for UNCW and Hofstra would be the record verse the teams tied for third.

So basically we need either William and Mary or Towson to win out.

[EvanJ]

So basically we need either William and Mary or Towson to win out.

We win the title if we beat UNC Wilmington and William & Mary and Towson each beat James Madison and lose their other game. If we win both games and James Madison loses both games, we win the title regardless of how Towson at UNC Wilmington goes.

[cactus]

Step one complete!

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[HofstraFan101]

Do we need UNCW to lose on Saturday to get the 1 seed?

[HofstraMathew]

Do we need UNCW to lose on Saturday to get the 1 seed?

No. We can win the tiebreaker if Towson or William and Mary finish ahead of JMU. There is also another scenario with Northeastern finishing ahead of Charleston that gives us the tiebreaker. These are assuming Towson holds on to this win tonight. I am sure the CAA or Hofstra will release a list of tiebreaker scenarios tomorrow.

[ProudofPride]

Step 2 complete!

We need a Hofstra win OR a UNCW loss on Saturday.

[EvanJ]

We need a Hofstra win OR a UNCW loss on Saturday.

That is almost true, but not completely true. A UNCW loss gives Hofstra the title, but there is one scenario below where Hofstra can win and not win the title if three other games go wrong.

Here are the regular season title scenarios:

Hofstra wins the title with:

1. A UNC Wilmington loss. If Hofstra and UNC Wilmington both lose, UNC Wilmington's loss to Towson will guarantee that Towson (who beat James Madison tonight) finishes ahead of James Madison. Then Hofstra would win the tiebreaker of record vs. Towson alone or with William & Mary in third.

2. A win and a William & Mary win over James Madison. This guarantees that James Madison would finish behind Towson and William & Mary.

3. A win, and a Northeastern win over Drexel. If these two things happened, UNC Wilmington won, and James Madison won, Hofstra and UNC Wilmington would each be 4-2 against the three-way tie for third, and it would go to record against the sixth place team. If Hofstra and Northeastern win, Northeastern will have sole possession of sixth because College of Charleston will have lost to Hofstra. Hofstra has a better record vs. Northeastern than UNC Wilmington does.

4. If Hofstra, UNC Wilmington, James Madison, and Drexel win, Hofstra and UNC Wilmington will be tied on all the CAA tiebreakers and the RPI, which is too close to call, would break the tie for regular season champion.

UNC Wilmington wins the title with:

1. A win and a Hofstra loss

2. The title via the RPI tiebreaker I described above.

[Wags]

We need a Hofstra win OR a UNCW loss on Saturday.

That is almost true, but not completely true. A UNCW loss gives Hofstra the title, but there is one scenario below where Hofstra can win and not win the title if three other games go wrong.

Here are the regular season title scenarios:

Hofstra wins the title with:

1. A UNC Wilmington loss. If Hofstra and UNC Wilmington both lose, UNC Wilmington's loss to Towson will guarantee that Towson (who beat James Madison tonight) finishes ahead of James Madison. Then Hofstra would win the tiebreaker of record vs. Towson alone or with William & Mary in third.

2. A win and a William & Mary win over James Madison. This guarantees that James Madison would finish behind Towson and William & Mary.

3. A win, and a Northeastern win over Drexel. If these two things happened, UNC Wilmington won, and James Madison won, Hofstra and UNC Wilmington would each be 4-2 against the three-way tie for third, and it would go to record against the sixth place team. If Hofstra and Northeastern win, Northeastern will have sole possession of sixth because College of Charleston will have lost to Hofstra. Hofstra has a better record vs. Northeastern than UNC Wilmington does.

4. If Hofstra, UNC Wilmington, James Madison, and Drexel win, Hofstra and UNC Wilmington will be tied on all the CAA tiebreakers and the RPI, which is too close to call, would break the tie for regular season champion.

UNC Wilmington wins the title with:

1. A win and a Hofstra loss

2. The title via the RPI tiebreaker I described above.

I hope UNCW wins, and I don't want to back in with a non-champion like 13-5 record. Tie our best mark ever (14-4) and earn our first title (whether shared or outright) with a win on Senior Day.

[joeg1]

It seems like we hold all of the realistic tiebreakers. Essentially, barring something crazy, if we win or uncw loses, we're in. We should know by tipoff if we need to win to get the 1 seed. Of course we want to win to help our resume as much as possible.