CAA Men's Basketball Previews

[EvanJ]

I want a topic for sites that predict the whole CAA separate from the long topic that is primarily about us.

https://www.three-man-weave.com/3mw/col ... eview-2021 predicts:

1. Us
2. Charleston
3. Northeastern
4. Towson
5. Delaware
6. Drexel
7. Elon
8. UNCW
9. JMU
10. W&M

That has the five former America East teams in the top six. Ray was picked Player of the Year. Their predicted First Team only had guards. JMU senior Matt Lewis, Drexel junior Camren Wynter, and Elon sophomore Hunter McIntosh were the rest of the First Team. Kante was on the Second Team, and Coburn was on the Third Team. It's great if we can graduate JWF, Buie, and Pemberton, and still start seasons favored to win the CAA or at least a contender. We went 72-28 (obviously .720) in the last three seasons, which includes non-Division I wins.

1. Our point guard is expected to be JUCO Shawndarius Cowart, who averaged 13.1 points, 7.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 2.3 steals. If Cowart can average 10 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.5 steals, and be average in other statistics (shooting percentages, turnovers, and fouls), Hofstra could have four of the top 20 CAA players with returning starters Ray, Kante, and Coburn. According to the College Basketball at Sports-Reference Play Index, last season four players averaged at least 10 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1.5 steals. In the 28 seasons they have statistics for, it was done 105 times, which is exactly 3.5 per season. The only CAA player to do that while we were in the CAA was Jarvis Threatt in 2013-2014. Claxton did that as a senior.

2. It predicts that transfers Payton Willis from Minnesota and Lorenzo Edwards from St. Joseph's will help them overcome the loss of likely NBA draft pick Grant Riller and starters Jaylen McManus and Sam Miller. The transfers are from great conferences, albeit St. Joseph's tied Fordham for last in the A10 at 2-16 last season. Their only returning player who averaged over 2.6 rebounds last season is Osinachi Smart, who averaged 4.7. Riller, McManus, and Miller combined for 54.9 percent of their points, 51.7 percent of their rebounds excluding team rebounds, and 51.9 percent of their assists. Willis averaged 8.6 points and 3.5 rebounds last season, and Edwards averaged 6.9 points and 5.0 rebounds. Leading returning scorer Brevin Galloway, Smart, Willis, and Edwards are all redshirt seniors, with returning junior Zep Jasper as their other starter. Charleston's defense has gotten worse for four consecutive seasons. They were 20th in 2015-2016 and 229th last season. It doesn't say if it uses points per game allowed or something else to measure defense. They averaged +0.26 points per possession with Riller on the court (1.07 scored and 0.81 allowed) and -0.12 with Riller on the bench (0.98 scored and 1.10 allowed).

3. Northeastern's predicted starters are Tyson Walker, Shaquille Walters, Jason Strong, Chris Doherty, and Greg Eboigbodin. It says Doherty needs a waiver to play immediately, otherwise he will be eligible after the Fall semester. Unless Walker improves or a newcomer is elite, they won't have anyone as good as they are used to with Jordan Roland, Vasa Pusica, T.J. Williams (who wasn't special until he was POY as a senior), and Scott Eatherton. Their worst CAA record since 2011 is 7-9, and the CAA doesn't have many returning stars, so having good but not great players could be enough for third.

4. Towson lost Brian Fobbs, Allen Betrand, Nakye Sanders, and Dennis Tunstall. Fobbs, Betrand, and Sanders combined for 54.6 percent of their points; and Fobbs, Sanders, and Tunstall combined for 48.4 percent of their rebounds. Three of them graduated, and Betrand transferred. They have a whopping seven newcomers, and it's eight if you include Solomon Uyaelunmo, who played the first two games last season before having a season-ending injury. Zane Martin, who was third in the CAA with 19.9 points in 2017-2018, transferred back to play for Towson nonconsecutively. He played for New Mexico in between. Also coming from a great conference out west is Victor Uyaelunmo from USC. Curtis Holland III from High Point, Demetrius Mims from Long Beach State, and Cameron Allen from Cal State Bakersfield arrive from mid-majors. I wonder if they spent a lot of time scouting California for possible transfers.

5. Delaware had Nate Darling go pro with a year of eligibility left, Justyn Mutts transferred, and Collin Goss graduated. They return Kevin Anderson, Ryan Allen, and Dylan Painter. They American Athletic (AAC) transfer Logan Curtis from ECU, two mid-major transfers, and two freshmen. Anderson, Allen, and Anthony Ochefu from Stony Brook are seniors.

6. Drexel didn't honor seniors Zach Walton and Sam Green last season because they applied for another season of eligibility. They both got it, but Green graduate transferred away. Camren Wynter, Walton, and James Butler are among the best groups of three returning teammates. Wynter has 342 assists in two seasons, and another 342 would make him finish second in CAA history behind Navy's Doug Wojcik, who got to pass to David Robinson. Old Dominion's Brion Dunlap is second with 680, and VCU's Eric Maynor is third with 674 and the top player from the 2000s or 2010s.

7. Elon kept everybody except for leading scorer Marcus Sheffield II. Their six newcomers (one of whom had surgery and is expected to miss the season) include Jerald Gillens-Butler, who averaged 1.1 points and 1.3 rebounds for Butler two seasons ago and had a redshirt transfer season last season. Ikenna Ndugba averaged 6.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.3 steals for Bryant in the bad Northeast Conference. He's a redshirt senior.

8. UNCW's only loss was graduate transfer Martin Linssen, who only played one season for them. They added two freshmen, Ian Steere who averaged 0.7 points for St. John's, and Jay Estime' who averaged 8.4 points in 5 games due to injury. Joe Pridgen, who averaged 17.4 points and 6.8 rebounds as a freshman for Holy Cross, is taking a transfer redshirt season.

9. JMU's only senior last season did so little that he isn't a Key Loss. Antanee Pinkard scored 24 points and had 25 rebounds in 174 minutes. Second leading scorer Darius Banks, third leading scorer Deshon Parker, and fourth leading scorer Dwight Wilson transferred. They return Matt Lewis and three players who averaged 5.0 to 6.6 points last season. They added five transfers and three freshmen. They are expected to start Lewis, returning Zach Jacobs, and transfers Jalen Hodge from Lousiana-Monroe, Rashawn Fredericks from Cincinnati, and Joel Mensah from San Diego State. Fredericks and Mensah didn't contribute much. Hodge (7.7 points), Vado Morse (10.8 points for Mount St. Mary's), and TJ Taylor (7.0 for Wyoming) contributed to other teams last season. Taylor needs a waiver to play immediately.

10. W&M's four graduates included their first (Nathan Knight), second (Andy Van Vliet), and fourth (Bryce Barnes) leading scorers last season. Luke Loewe, who averaged 10.7, is their leading returning scorer. Thornton Scott averaged 7.3 and 4.4 assists, but he didn't play in 75 percent of the games which players needs to qualify. Quinn Blair (4.8 points), Mekhel Harvey (1.2 points), Yuri Covington (freshmen) are expected to start. They added five freshmen, but no transfers.

[Polito]

Thanks Evan! Getting pumped!

Crazy year, and will be very hard to predict pre-season, but I do think the teams that have a starting core returning will likely have a slight leg up on those who are replacing many or all. Just not enough time to gel like normal due to limited offseason, as well as likely very limited OOC to tighten up loose ends.

Wouldn't surprise me to see the lower portion of this list play a little better than expected to start... but ultimately I would expect to see HU be very formidable for the at the top, along with NU (due to coaching), and maybe one of CofC or Drexel depending on how well their talent comes together.

Swear it seems like Towson is constantly replacing their roster. UD took HUGE hits, good coaching, but don't see them as champ contender now this year.

My sleeper will be Elon. They are building something worthy there. And will be watching the W now with a capable staff. Bottom two I don't see much to write about.

READY for this season, PUMPED to see Ray Coburn and Kante take leadership and guys like Cowart and Cramer to hit the floor - will the light go on for Silverio? Will Burgess take another step forward in his progression learning from SC? How fast will Green and Bethea acclimate, and who will redshirt??

LOT of possibilities in such a wild year, should be very exciting season! Only one goal: R E P E A T

[Jojogunne]

Here are the predictions from Lindy's college basketball annual:

1 Drexel
2 Elon
3 Delaware
4 C of C
5 Hofstra
6 JMU
7 NE
8 UNCW
9 W&M
10 Towson

First Team
G Ryan Allen, Delaware
G Cam Wynter, Drexel (the kid from Holy Trinity HS)
G Matt Lewis, NE
F James Butler, Drexel
F Isaac Kante, Hofstra

Second Team
G Brevin Galloway, C of C
G Kevin Anderson, Delaware
G Jaylen Sims
G Hunter Woods, Elon
C Victor Uyaselunmo, Towson

Player of the Year
G Cam Wynter, Drexel (the kid fron Holy Trinity HS)

Newcomer of the Year
G Payton Willis - C of C

Honor Roll
Best Shooter - Matt Lewis, NE
Best Rebounder - James Butler, Drexel
Best Playmaker - Cam Wynter, Drexel
Best Defender - Brevin Galloway, C of C
Most Versatile - Cam Wynter, Drexel
Best NBA Prospect - James Butler, Drexel

I don't know who wrote these predictions, but I'm guessing it was a Philly guy.

What do you all think?

[Polito]

I think that one is garbage.

Either that person is on to something special with a powerful vision, or I am way off my rocker. Could be either lol, and we'll find out in a few months!

[stuball888]

Three man weave was very insightful and thorough with its analyst

[EvanJ]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-baske ... -schedules has the AP article about the CAA's schedule. CAA news other than small game recaps rarely makes the AP.

Northeastern is four spots above Elon in the first one and five spots below Elon in the second one. Jalen Ray is POY in the first one and not on the First Team or Second Team in the second one.

I posted this first in the Northeastern forum of CSNBBS, so "you" meant them, and you could tell that from the paragraphs. I just edited by post to change "Hofstra" to "Us" and "You" to "Northeastern."

Outside the CAA, UMass is appealing a decision that they must vacant 59 wins from 2014 to 2017. Another A10 team got bad news, and that's Richmond. Nick Sherod, who led the A10 and was tenth in Division I shooting threes .438, tore his ACL. He already had three complete seasons and a six game season that I'm guessing was an injury redshirt.

[triplec2195]

Evan thanks for all this info. its very detailed and insightful. Three man weave is paying us some respect and rightfully so bringing back three starters and a bevy of talented newcomers. The Lindy's is the difference of night and day. I like Jalen but the POY I'm not sure about that with so many good players in this league. Lets see how CAA predictions go from the coaches etc.

[EvanJ]

The CAA hasn't said anything about if there will be a virtual Media Day, https://static.caasports.com/custompage ... 0mbask.pdf is the annual Record Book, so for the first time we're on Page 1 as the previous Tournament winner. Here are new additions from 2019-2020:

1. Career scoring average: Grant Riller is tenth at 18.7. They list him tied with Agudio, but Riller averaged 18.74, and Agudio averaged 18.66. If they went to another decimal place, Agudio would have dropped out of the top ten and not been shown there.

2. Points in a game: Desure Buie's 44 hosting Elon on January 4, 2020 is tied for sixth.

3. and 4. Career points: Grant Riller's 2,474 is third behind David Robinson and Jenkins. Nathan Knight's 2,141 is thirteenth. Of the Top 15, they're the only players to graduate the same year.

5. Career field goals made: Grant Riller's 880 is third behind David Robinson and John Newman.

6. Season field goal attempts: Jordan Roland's 517 is tied for ninth.

7. Career field goal attempts: Grant Riller's 1,695 is sixth.

8. Season field goal percentage with at least 4 made per game: Isaac Kante's .655 is fourth behind Devontae Cacok's .800 in 2016-2017, Vladimir Kuljanin's .667 in 2007-2008, and Gustys' .660 in 2015-2016.

9. Three-Point field goals made by a team in a game: Our 20 hosting James Madison on February 29, 2020 is tied for third. The record is 21 by UNCW and Northeastern.

10. Three-Point field goals made in a season: Nate Darling's 107 is fifth.

11. and 12. Free throws made in a career: Nathan Knight's 559 is seventh and Grant Riller's 527 is ninth.

13. and 14. Free throw attempted in a career: Nathan Knight's 760 is sixth and Grant Riller's 662 is tenth.

15., 16., and 17. Consecutive free throws made: Nate Darling's 38 and Eli Pemberton's 38 are tied for second. Desure Buie's 35 is tied for ninth. Willie Taylor has the record of 45. We're the only team to have teammates made at least 35 consecutive free throws in the same season.

18. Team free throw percentage in a game: 100 percent has happened many times. Northeastern's 19 on February 1, 2020 at Elon is tied for the fourth most made without a miss. Northeastern has the record, which is 27.

19., 20, and 21. Team free throw percentage in a season: Northeastern's .794 is third, our .783 is fourth, and Towson's .771 is fifth. In 2010-2011 when Jenkins was a senior, he and Mike Moore shot free throws great, and we broke the CAA record with .761. Now the CAA lists the top five and .761 isn't high enough. The top five were all done in the last three seasons. William & Mary has the record with .810 in 2017-2018, and we are second with .802 in 2018-2019.

22. Rebounds in a season: James Butler's 387 is sixth.

23. Career rebounds: Nathan Knight's 964 is thirteenth.

24. Season rebounds per game: James Butler's 11.7 is tenth. He's listed as tied with George Mason's Kenny Sanders, but Sanders' exact value is lower.

25. Career blocks: Nathan Knight's 221 is ninth.

We have 6 of those 25, which is 24 percent.

[EvanJ]

https://cbbcentral.com/2020/10/27/2020- ... a-preview/ picks us first and gives Kante POY. I wonder if teams in any other conference will be picked first and have two players get POY if you look at enough sources. After us they have Charleston, Towson, Northeastern, Elon, Delaware, JMU, Drexel, UNCW, and W&M. Their first team has Kante, Ray, Matt Lewis, Payton Willis (who averaged 8.6 points for Minnesota last season and has already had three seasons and a redshirt season), and Zane Martin (who transferred back to Towson and was third in the CAA with 19.9 points in 2017-2018). Martin is their Newcomer of the Year, and Tyson walked is their breakout Player of the Year. They didn't make a Second Team, Third Team, or Rookie Team.

Here is the preseason KenPom:

148. Hofstra (it would be horrible if the top CAA team was in 148th after the season)
170. Northeastern
176. Charleston
199. Towson
203. Drexel
209. Elon
221. Delaware
239. UNCW
270. JMU
289. W&M

Division I will be up to 357 teams, so 179th is the mean rank. The CAA has a mean rank 0f 212.4. By adjusted efficiency margin, which is how they rank teams, we're closer to W&M 141 spots below us than to Washington 73 spots above us. Bethune-Cookman, who is ranked 351st, announced they will not play. They're in Dayton Beach.

California-San Diego (186th and in the big West), Bellarmine (291st and in the Atlantic Sun), Dixie State (321st and in the Western Athletic), and Tarleton State (335th and in the Western Athletic) are the four teams new to Division I. Since there's already San Diego and San Diego State, there are now three teams with San Diego in their name. Bellarmine is in Louisville. Dixie State is not in the southeast. It's in St. George, Utah, which is near the border with Arizona. Stephenville, Texas, which is 68 miles southwest of Fort Worth and 89 miles northwest of Waco.

CBS Sports predicts:

138. Hofstra (St. John's is 74th)
144. Delaware
150. Towson
165. Northeastern
173. Charleston
216. W&M
222. Drexel
227. Elon
271. JMU
325. UNCW

That mean of 203.1 is better than the CAA was predicted in KenPom, but still bad. The two rankings earlier in this post and the one I started the topic with all have us first and Charleston and Northeastern second and third in either order, so having them fourth in fifth in CBS Sports' predictions is different. W&M is 73 spots higher and 4 spots higher in the CAA than in KenPom. Kennesaw State, who is normally horrible, is predicted 313th, but they have the Number 60 recruiting class. The Power Five and Big East combined have 75 teams, so Kennesaw State is above 16 of them and one more for any teams like Gonzaga not in the top six conferences.

[EvanJ]

My last post was big, so I'm making a new one. https://caasports.com/news/2020/11/4/me ... 11-12.aspx is titled "CAA TO HOST BASKETBALL MEDIA DAYS NOV. 11-12." The Men will be on Wednesday, and the Women will be on Thursday. The text says it starts at 9:00 A.M. each day, but the schedule within each day starts at 9:30 A.M. Another CAA fan said the FloSports' price of $12.50 if you pay by month is now their regular price, but I responded that I didn't see that. Last season they had CAA offer for $12.50 paying by month, and it included all the games Flo has when I thought it just had the CAA and I would have to pay more for everything else, which I wouldn't have done. Occasionally I watched something that wasn't from the CAA.
They have prices of $29.95 per month if you pay by month or $12.50 per month if you pay for a year, which is the cost of five moths and $0.25. I want it through the CAA Tournaments in May, which is more than five months from now, so I will commit to $150 for the year if that's what it costs. I don't care enough about CAA Football to pay for it, but if I pay for the year I would watch a little Football in the Spring and/or Fall. I don't want to commit to a year to get the cheaper price and then find out I didn't need to commit to a year to get that price. Events can be watched after they happen, so if I don't pay by the time Media Day happens I can watch later if I pay.

CBS Sports picked Villanova first, with Duke (12th) and Michigan State (13th) out of the Top 10. They predict Dayton to fall to 42nd.